Welcome to the brave new world of investing, where every day in the stock market can feel like bedlam. Investors have been careening from fear to relief and back again as they react to morsels of news about the health of the economy and corporate profits, the global trade war and when the Federal Reserve will next raise interest rates. With each mood shift, stock prices have swung wildly. Unusually big moves – both up and down – have come at a frequency not seen in years. On Friday, the S&P 500 index soared 3.4 percent following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, news of trade talks between the United States and China and comments from the Fed seen as helpful for stocks. It was a sharp reversal from just the day before when investors saw the glass decidedly half empty. On Thursday, the S&P 500 plunged 2.5 percent after a disappointing US manufacturing report raised fears about a possible recession and Apple warned about weak iPhone sales in China. That two-day whiplash followed 2018, a year when the S&P 500 had 20 days where it swung by at least 2 percent, twice as many as any of the prior six years. The market has gotten so topsy-turvy that when Friday’s jobs report first came out, about an hour before the New York Stock Exchange opened, some investors wondered if it would cause relief or panic. The numbers were strong, but were they so strong as to push the Fed to raise rates faster, which would be bad for stocks? “I did find myself wondering how the market is going to react to this: Are people asking, ‘Is this good?'” said Ernie Cecilia, chief investment officer at Bryn Mawr Trust. “It just shows the environment we’re in. It’s uncertain how the market reacts, or overreacts.” Expect the jitters to continue. Reports are coming that will give investors clues about whether their fears of a possible recession are warranted, as well as updates on interest rates and trade policy. Among the approaching milestones that could be the next to roil Wall Street: Earnings season Starting this week, companies will begin reporting their profits for the last three months of 2018, and expectations are high. Analysts are forecasting 11.4 percent growth for S&P 500 companies, which would be the fifth straight quarter of gains topping 10 percent, according to FactSet. Those numbers are key because stock prices tend to track corporate profits over the long term. But even more attention will likely be paid to what CEOs say about future profits. “We’re going to have a nice, solid double-digit number” for fourth-quarter earnings growth, said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors. “I think the market’s bigger concern is how big the 2019 deceleration is.” Executives generally talk with analysts and investors immediately after their companies’ quarterly earnings are released. Stock prices could swing depending on what they say about how moderating economic growth, US-China trade tensions and interest rates could affect their upcoming results. Apple’s warning last week about slow iPhone sales in China, the world’s second-largest economy, shocked the market and sent Apple’s stock down nearly 10 percent. On the same day, Delta Air Lines fell nearly 9 percent after it trimmed its forecast for fourth-quarter revenue. Orlando said he expects earnings growth will remain positive in 2019, just slower than last year, much like the economy. He nevertheless expects stocks to claw back their recent losses and return to a record by the end of the year, though with a lot of volatility in between. Published in Daily Times, January 8th 2019.