Charles Dickens’ Christmas Carol’s ghosts of past, present and future Christmases have regularly appeared in this column at this time of year. If the ghosts embodied geostrategic spirits, this is what should haunt us. The question is whether or not the Ebeneezer Scrooges who lead us will be as chastened and transformed by these visitations as was Dickens’ central character. The geostrategic ghost of Christmas Past would gaze over the 20th century, or at least the first nine decades, as a time of intense bipolar rivalries producing instability and violence in Europe. The Hundred, Thirty, Napoleonic, Crimean and Franco-Prussian wars set the predicate. World War I culminated these centuries of strife in the battle between the Allies and Central Powers. World War II was fought and won by the Allies defeating the Axis Powers. And, fortunately, the Cold War never went hot as the West presided over the demise of the Soviet Union. The last decade of the 20th century was however, less a New World Order as President George H.W. Bush saw it and more a temporary respite from most of history described by Thomas Hobbes as “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short.” Unfotunately, September 11th ended that lull. In its place, a new era that can be called destructively fragmented has arisen driven by globalization and the diffusion of power. Christmas Present’s ghost would observe that the emegence of al Qaeda and other revolutionary groups was different in that while terror as political weapon was far from new, globalization and the interconnectivity of states accelerated and magnified their effectiveness. New societal vulnerabilities were created in large part by the Internet and the frightening availability of dangerous technologies to individuals and non-state actors. And this diffusion of power continues to roil geopolitics as the United States focuses on coping with great power competition and rivalry principally with the “rise” of China and “the resurgence” of a revanchist Russia while it also seems to signal retreat from its global leadership. Societal disruption hae returned. From the “@metoo” movement in America to “yellow jackets” in France; dangerous increases in populism and anti-immigration sentiments; Brexit that will have only bad oucomes for the UK; and a U.S. withdrawal from international responsibilities, a Hobbesian world seems to be re-emerging. Christmas Present would also observe that a common linkage among these disruptions is the failure of governments to govern particularly evident in the West although long a destructive factor in less developed parts of the world. In the United States, a perfect storm seems to be coalescing around President Donald Trump. Virtually every aspect of his life is being investigated. The Trump Corporation, his Foundation now shut down in a legal settlement; the campaign; the inaugural committee; his administration; and most importantly possible wrong doing regarding Russia In the United States, a perfect storm seems to be coalescing around President Donald Trump. Virtually every aspect of his life is being investigated. The Trump Corporation, his Foundation now shut down in a legal settlement; the campaign; the inaugural committee; his administration; and most importantly possible wrong doing regarding Russia and potential crimes relating to cover-ups, money laundering, conspiracy and other illegal activities are part of these examinations. The latest blow was the firing of Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis over the decision to pull troops from Syria and Afghanistan. With a Democratic House of Representatives and a stock market having the worst December since the Depression, Christmas Present will not be showering good news among the gifts awaiting the Trumps at Mar a Lago tomorrow, The same ill will applies to UK Prime Minister Theresa May; German Chancellor Angela Merkel; and French President Emmanuel Macron. Not much holiday spirit among the Western democracies this year. But what about Christmas Future? What will be foretold? A worldwide recession is not out of the question. With Trump’s America First and his embrace of Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as North Korea’s Kim Jung Un and China’s Xi Jingping, will that lead to further disintegration? As Dickens’ ghost portrayed the death of Tiny Tim, will today’s Scrooges be as affected? Another Dickens’s line is a predictable guide to the future: the best and worst of times. That paradox surely fits. The advances of technology and the opportunities presented are unlimited. However, govenment seems generically incapable of successfully filling the public’s need in most Western countries. And while China and Russia may appear in the ascent, both are consumed with immense domestic problems that for the moment are seemingly kept in check. But will that persist? A prediction: the age of disintegration is upon us. This applies domestically and globally. An increasingly fragmented world seems inevitable. These are not presents one would normally like to have received several days ago in Xmas stockings or under the Christmas tree. Is this specter of Christmas Future avoidable? The answer is twofold. Is Donald Trump a good or a bad Scrooge? If it is the latter, heaven help us. If it is the former, a belated Merry Christmas to all! Dr. Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist. His latest book is Anatomy of Failure: Why America Has Lost Every War It Starts. The writer can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman. Published in Daily Times, December 28th 2018.