Daily Times

Now that Imran Khan has been sworn in as Pakistan’s Prime Minister, dealing with the United States is among his many problems and priorities.  The US-Pakistani relationship has descended from bad to worse.  American funding has been suspended.  And the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has threatened to block IMF money to Pakistan if Islamabad continues to move even closer towards China’s orbit. Suppose then that the new Prime Minister has asked his government for advice on policy options for Pakistan in dealing with Washington.  What might be recommended? If I were to write a memo for Imran Khan regarding options for the US policy. This is what I would say:

It is our view that the current trajectory of Pakistani-American relations is headed towards a collision.  Whether that will occur over the economy and the need for many billions of dollars of outside loans and investment; U.S resentment over improving relations with China; or a blow up in Afghanistan or with India is unclear. Indeed, it could be one or more of these potential crisis points.

Meanwhile, dire shortages in electricity, water, foreign reserves and external investment are critical domestic realities.  Extremism is far from defeated.  And the Kabul government is losing control over its country, threatening the continuation of President Ashraf Ghani’s regime and a stable neighbour.

You are overseeing a coalition government in which the opposition PPP and PML-N parties will actively seek to cripple your leadership with the expectation of forcing a no confidence vote. So what to do now?

Regarding America and your policy towards it, your focus must be on President Donald Trump with whom you have a lot in common.  You both are celebrities.  Trump in real estate and television.  You in Cricket.  You both are non-politicians.  Neither of you has had prior experience in government or in governing.  And you are both highly charismatic and maintain a strong intensely loyal although minority base that will not desert you. Moreover you both welcome “big ideas.”

He may not get a Nobel Peace prize for negotiations with North Korea. Trump could however become the “deal maker” for Pakistani-Indian arms limitation talks. With that as a first step, one could expect the suspension of American funding to be lifted

At the same time, it is our view that the Russian investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller poses an existential political danger to Mr. Trump.  He therefore needs a dramatic political win.  You can deliver that.  Ironically, North Korea provides part of such an approach.

You may not be aware of our history with North Korea and nuclear weapons. When she was prime minister, Benazir Bhutto sent A.Q. Khan to Pyongyang to exchange nuclear technology for substantial and desperately needed funding.  From that point, North Korea developed sufficient nuclear capacity ultimately to allow Kim Jung Un to negotiate with America from what he saw as his position of nuclear parity given North Korea’s ability to threaten America with atomic attack.

Of course, we are not advocating that strategy.  But we have now achieved sufficient nuclear strength to give us absolute ability to deter India.  Indeed, with this nuclear balance, now is the time for us to begin serious talks with India about arms controls.  This is one big idea you can deliver to Mr. Trump.

He may not get a Nobel Peace prize for negotiations with North Korea. He could however become the “deal maker” for Pakistani-Indian arms limitation talks.  With that as a first step, one could expect suspension of American funding to be lifted.

In parallel, you can deliver on Afghanistan.  The U.S. has demanded that we increase our kinetic efforts against the Haqqani and other Taliban networks. That has not and will not work.

Given your more conciliatory views on dealing with the Taliban, you can broker negotiations for a peaceful political settlement that none of your predecessors or prior presidents could achieve. Through our access to the Trump family and his very close associates, we can begin discussions over a possible summit meeting even as soon as this Fall before the American Congressional elections.  Trump would quickly understand this.

While foreign policy normally has little effect on American elections-President George H.W. Bush had 90 percent favourable ratings at the end of 1991 and the Gulf War and lost in 1992-with Trump, old rules do not seem to apply. Breakthroughs in the Pak-Indo and Afghan conflicts would make Mr. Trump even more bullet proof. And another benefit would be to shift attention away from the Russian investigation, possibly permanently.

The writer has served on the Senior Advisory Group for Supreme Allied Commander Europe (2004-2016) and is currently Senior Advisor at Washington DC’s Atlantic Council, chairman of two private companies and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. A former naval person, he commanded a destroyer in the Persian Gulf and led over 150 missions and operations in Vietnam as a Swift Boat skipper. His latest book is Anatomy of Failure: Why America Has Lost Every War It Starts. The writer can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.

Published in Daily Times, August 25^th 2018.