Spare a thought for Imran Khan. The man who will be King is poised to inherit an economy already on life support. A not dissimilar state of financial affairs to that which Gen Musharraf found himself confronted nearly two decades earlier. Aside from one stark difference: this time around, Pakistan is not suffering from almost a decade of crippling sanction. But, rather, the folly of not having a Finance minister for all but one of the last five years. Thus once the fanfare surrounding Kaptaan being sworn in as Prime Minister dies down, it will be time to get down to the decidedly unglamorous task of dealing with the nitty gritty. Namely, the question of how to stop the national economy from further haemorrhaging. One thing is clear, the incoming PTI-led government is working overtime to avoid going begging to the IMF. But even if the worst were to happen, any funds released would still fall short. For, with the central bank having access to just $10.4 million in foreign exchange reserves — hardly sufficient to fund imports beyond two months, if that — Pakistan would need a hard injection of some $12 billion to keep afloat. Yet the Fund would only be authorised to release $9bn; according to its maximum quota. And then there is the un-small matter of how Donald Trump has already publicly cautioned the global lending institution against splashing any cash Islamabad’s way. For the simple reason that this may be used to service the country’s Chinese debt; totalling $5bn over the last financial year. This may not be a bad thing. Not only are IMF repayment schedules notoriously perilous — debtor nations often find themselves lumbered with economic policies that benefit American concerns. Which is why PTI leaders have said that they are considering this as a fall-back plan only. Far more comfortable are they doing business with China and Saudi Arabia. Beijing has reportedly stepped up; pledging to provide all necessary plugs. And while it is being coy about exact figures, it remains in its interest that Pakistan does not go down the IMF route. For starters, a crippled economy will not be amenable to repaying substantial Chinese loans. This is not to mention the question of the Middle Kingdom’s territorial ambitions in terms of increased neighbourhood clout. Islamabad, for its part, must be wary of becoming embroiled in either a Sino-US trade war or else the battle for regional hegemony. Similarly, while accepting a $4-billion Saudi loan that is reportedly in the offing, the new set-up must be mindful of its resolve to remain neutral in the volatile Middle East. All of this being said, the state must do its bit by tackling large trade deficits by way of slashing public spending, reducing imports and upping exports. Despite the risk of putting on hold the dream of a Medina-style welfare state. But then this is surely a more credible approach than, say, redirecting military financial assistance from one country and redirecting it towards the national economy; thereby precipitating inflated GDP growth. At least, we thinks so. * Published in Daily Times, August 15th 2018.