China is a formidable opponent; whatever way one looks at it. Its economy is the second largest after the US, with its GDP projected to grow to $42 trillion in a dozen years compared to the US’ annual output of $24 trillion. Of course, it is not as simple as that when one considers the size of their respective populations, with China’s population — whatever might be the population growth rate during that period — is likely to remain four times that of the US. But still, China’s projected annual output at about $42 trillion by 2030 does put a lot of resources at the disposal of its government to project its economic-political power through trade, foreign investment and raw military power. Even now, it is throwing its weight around the Asian region. Apart from economic growth, a crucial factor that has helped China to project its power has been the diminution of US power, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. With the US distracted in Afghanistan and the Middle East, China has been steadily pushing the boundaries of its territorial and political sway. An important example is the assertion of its sovereignty over the South China Sea islands; proceeding to occupy these islands as well as dredging up new ones to establish military facilities and station advanced weaponry, like missiles and bombers, to deter those with competing claims. If China is able to fully secure the South China Sea, with its vital trade routes, it will be able to control trade flows as well as naval and military movements that might be considered hostile. The Chinese have disregarded objections from the US, Australia and some other regional countries, over this takeover, however China has remained undeterred. In the process, the South China Sea has been turned into a virtual Chinese lake. Combined with the emerging trade war between the two countries, the US determination to counter China is indicative of a worsening situation in the Indo-Pacific region. The question then is: will the US confront China? In one way, it is doing that already by imposing tariffs on Chinese exports, with China hitting back with its own list of tariff stricken imports from the US. President Trump has threatened to expand US tariffs to whatever it takes, creating the prospects of a trade war. If unchecked, this might eventually create the momentum for a larger conflict beyond trade issues. Coming back to the South China Sea, the US is keen to co-opt Australia to counter China. China is also financing infrastructure projects in South Pacific countries, regarded to be in Australia’s backyard. The argument is that these projects are going nowhere productive, designed essentially to subvert the sovereignty of small regional countries by saddling them with unsustainable debts. In an interview with Peter Hartcher, Sydney Morning Herald’s international editor, Randy Schriver the US Assistant Secretary of Defence for East Asia and Pacific, reportedly emphasized the need to impose ‘costs’ on China for militarizing the artificial islands it has built in the South China Sea. He said, “We [the US] fundamentally approach economic relationships and capacity-building in a different way to the Chinese. It’s not predatory, it’s clean and transparent. But we’ve got to show up, we’ve got to do it [to counter China].” Expanding on China’s game plan, Schriver said, “… you will see a little more assertiveness” by the Chinese armed forces on the seas, with “more challenges, more shadowing” of other countries naval vessels “signalling that you are in Chinese territory.” That, in Schriver’s view, is China’s “trajectory”, and the US would counter it with a variety of measures, including freedom-of-navigation operations by its navy to maintain access to international waters. The US apparently is consulting with countries apart from Australia as well to counter China in the South China Sea and Southern Pacific side, though Schriver didn’t identify any other country that the US might be interacting with in this regard. He reportedly said that, “In my discussions with counterparts [in other like-minded countries] there’s a sentiment that we want to co-operate” to give small South Pacific countries an alternative to China’s “predatory habits.” Combined with the emerging trade war between the two countries, the US determination to counter China is indicative of the worsening situation in Indo-Pacific region. China would have preferred another 5-10 years to consolidate its position, both economically and strategically. Economically, it would have liked to broaden its economy to reduce too much dependence on exports, of which the US is a major outlet. The US offensive in the trade war can lead to social unrest in China from increased unemployment in export-dependent industries. The Chinese government is very sensitive about this because the ruling Communist Party’s implied compact with its people is based on improved economic conditions, while it maintains a monopoly of political power. The charged military situation in South China Sea might compound domestic uncertainty as to how it will unfold is anybody’s guess? The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia Published in Daily Times, July 30th 2018.