Daily Times

Pakistan goes ballot boxing a mere four days from now. These elections have been marred by terrorist attacks and allegations of interference from the country’s powerful military establishment. Yet, a fragile democracy, often marred by intrigues, is set to deliver another civilian transfer of power.

Among the permutations and combinations at play, there are two likely scenarios. In either case, no party is likely to walk away with an outright majority. The clash essentially boils down to Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) ChiefImran Khan and his narrative of anti-corruption versus Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif and his narrative of civilian supremacy.

Let’s take a glance at Imran Khan first.

Khan’s PTI, if it comes to power, will stitch up a coalition with parties other than the PPP and PML-N. Over the years, many dismissed Imran for being impractical. He was a lone fighter and did not pose a challenge to the status quo.

None of that is true now.

The PTI chief has made scary compromises, accepted turncoats, appeased the far-right and resorted to dangerous election rhetoric once reserved exclusively for the warring PPP and PML-N in the 90s.

Today, he poses a real challenge to the likes of Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari. It has taken a little over 20 years, but Imran Khan has finally learnt the tricks of the trade. The proverbial gloves are off and Khan is now in a strong position to beat the Zardari-Nawaz nexus at their very own game.

This presents a dilemma for some of his supporters.

How does one reconcile with such a free fall from the moral high ground that Khan took for a good part of two decades of his politics? There was disdain – amongst Khan and his followers – for those that were a part of the status quo.

Many of those faces have now joined his party and some will be eyeing top government positions should Khan come into power. This, his supporters say, is a necessity for electoral victory.

Assuming this switch to real politik is well received by the voters, the challenge of governing itself will not be easy. That’s also where some of Khan’s most ardent supporters might be in for a very rude awakening.

Pakistan’s problems are not going to go away anytime soon. Attacks on political events in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan continue to expose Pakistan’s law and order troubles. The country’s economy will brings its own challenges as Pakistan grapples with a dropping rupeeand dwindling foreign reserves.

Assuming PTI’s switch to realpolitik is well received by the voters, the challenge of governing itself will not be easy. That’s also where some of Khan’s most ardent supporters might be in for a very rude awakening. Pakistan’s problems are not going to go away anytime soon

Realistically speaking, therefore, the magic wand of Khan’s “Naya Pakistan” might not be as effective as some of his supporters want it to be. This will, in turn, test the political endurance of his supporters, many of whom arealready on the edge.

The elephant in the room is thewidely held perception that the military establishment is supporting Imran Khan. This was also trumpeted in the lead up to the 2013 election, except the PTI was unable to get anywhere near their desired number of seats. A look at some of Khan’s old speeches will give everyone a fair idea of where he stands vis-à-vis military interference in politics. So, if the perception of ongoing interference is true, for how long will Khan really be able to tow their line?

But, what if the PML-N and PPP win enough seats and stitch up a coalition?

That will necessitate a recalibration of Pakistan’s civil-military relations and, this time, the civilians will have some degree of leverage. Perhaps for the first time in the country’s history, both these parties have openly named military personnel allegedly interfering in the election process.

Performance and service-delivery aside, these parties will also attract voters on the basis of civilian supremacy.

Take Nawaz Sharif’s election slogan as an example. You can fault him for many things but you cannot fault him for clarity of thought in molding his election message. A vote for Nawaz, in the eyes of his supporters, is now a vote for civilian supremacy.

While the PPP is unlikely to translate Bilawal’s impressive campaign into a massive electoral victory, they will still hold sway. In a likely scenario where no party will end up with a clear-cut majority, PPP’s stocks will rise after the election since they will win enough seats to be in a position to join a coalition government.

Whichever scenario eventually plays out, Pakistan is at a crossroads. A win for Imran Khan means Pakistan gets a new party and a chance to test another political force. A win for the PML-N means Pakistan takes a key step in its struggle for civilian supremacy.

The writer can be reached at imran.khan@columbia.edu

Published in Daily Times, July 21^st 2018.