BADIN KARACHI: Sindh’s agricultural and mineral rich district Badin remained a safe bet for Pakistan Peoples Party until the 2013 general elections. However, with the exit of the politically influential Mirza family, the PPP may find it tough to retain its electoral supremacy here. In 2013, PPP grabbed both the National Assembly and all five Sindh Assembly seats in Badin. Though, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz candidate Ismail Rahoo challenged the outcome on one of the PS seats, and got a decision in his favour. That was then. For July 25 elections, the Mirza family has joined hands with anti-PPP Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) and its five family members will contest from the platform of the GDA. Local journalist Hanif Samoon thinks that the Mirza family’s position remains strong in the upcoming polls. “Although it is PPP versus the Grand Democratic Alliance, but the PPP’s actual competition is with the Mirza family,” he says. According to Samoon, there are various factors at play in GDA’s politics; including the role of spiritual followers of GDA chief Pir Pagaro and the influence of former Sindh CM Arbab Ghulam Rahim in Golarchi, Tando Bago and Badin areas. “But the most important factor here is the Mirza family,” he says. Former Sindh Interior Minister Zulfiqar Mirza was once a close friend and former class fellow of of PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari. But their relationship has turned sour to the extent that Mirza recently said that his contest was not with PPP, but with Zardari. “In this election, I and Zardari, not PPP, are opposing each other tooth and nail,” Mirza was quoted as saying in an interview. With its five sugar mills, Badin known as the ‘Sugar Estate’ of Sindh. But recently sugarcane growers protested against the Sindh government for not taking any action against politically-strong sugar mills owners who didn’t purchase sugarcane at the official rate. The situation also led to the closure of some mills. The tail-ender growers were also unhappy over ‘unfair water distribution’ for their crops, while wheat crop in many areas could not be grown due to delay in the lifting of sugarcane from crop fields. Badin district lies east of the Indus River. This district is bordered by Hyderabad, Mirpukhas, Tharparkar, and also Kutch district of India in the south, which also forms the international boundary with India.Badin is an oil-producing district. Apart from its vast coal field reserves, besides sugarcane, the region is suitable for growing rice. Samoon maintains that the woes of the farming community can add to PPP’s worries in the district, since the former associate their plight with the PPP government’s policies. “The agriculture factor will play an important role. Water shortage sugar cane rates manipulation can dent PPP,” he added. According to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), the voters registered in the district are 756,029, a sizeable number of whom are Punjabi speakers. Badin also has a sizeable vote share of minorities, particularly the Kohli community, who are agriculture labourers by profession. Kohlis’ vote is expected to go to the candidate chosen by their landlords. Candidates and constituencies In PS-70 (Matli taluka), the PPP gave a ticket to Bashir Ahmed Halepoto while Riaz Ahmed Nizamani is contesting from GDA’s ticket. Halepoto has twice been an MPA as well as district council chairman. Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), a political alliance of religious parties has also fielded its candidate in this constituency. Although on the constituency there is one-on-one competition expected but Halepoto seems to be favourite. PS-71 (Talhar taluka): In this constituency PPP has fielded Mir Allah Bux Talpur whereas Dr Abdullah Talpur is going to contest from GDA’s ticket. Besides these candidates, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf has also fielded Nawab Abu Bakar Talpur as its candidate. Mir Allah Bux Talpur, a seasoned politician has remained member of parliament various times in the past. A tough contest is expected between the PPP and GDA candidates. Abu Bakar is expected to be a spoiler and could damage both of the Talpurs’ votes. In PS-72 (Tando Bago taluka), after Bibi Yasmin’s disqualification, Syed Ali Bux, also known as Pappu Shah, is contesting on a PPP ticket, whereas Hasnain Mirza, son of Zulfiqar Mirza, is contesting from GDA. Pappu Shah is a former two-time Sindh minister and former leader of Pakistan Muslim League- Functional (PML-F). Before joining the PPP some time ago, Shah was considered an arch rival of the party. In 2013 elections, Hasnain Mirza won the provincial assembly seat on PPP’s ticket. “Pappu Shah seems to be in a strong position. His confidence level is evident from the fact that Pappu Shah has not yet started his work,” Samoon said. In PS-73 (Badin taluka), the contest is between the GDA’s Dr Fehmida Mirza and PPP’s Taj Muhammad Mallah. In 2008, former speaker National Assembly Dr Mirza became the first female parliamentary speaker in the Muslim world. According to Samoon Fehmida Mirza is in a strong position. “In 2013 Fehmida won by securing 28,000 votes on PPP’s ticket, while her opponent lost by a margin of 7,000 margins. Fehmida got votes of Mallah, Soomro and Mandhro communities. Apparently Fehmida Mirza is in a strong position,” he added. In PS-74 (Golarchi taluka), Dr Zulfiqar Mirza of GDA will be contesting against PPP’s Mohammad Ismail Rahu. Ismail Rahoo is a seasoned politician from Badin and has been elected to Sindh Assembly in the past. His father Fazil Rahoo was a political leader and one of the most famous peasant leaders in Sindh. Before joining the PPP, Ismail remained provincial president of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). “This could be a nail-biting finish battle,” said Samoon. “Swinging Punjabi speaking voters could play a decisive role. Whoever they support is expected to win,” he opined. “In the past, Rahoo won with the support of Zulfiqar Mirza. This time he is contesting against him. So this could be very interesting battle,” the expert added. The NA-229 constituency comprises of theh Matli, Talhar and some areas of 11 UCs of Tando Bago talukas. The PPP has given a ticket to Mir Ghulam Ali Talpur, son of former Sindh chief minister Mir Banda Ali Khan. On the other hand, Zulfiqar Mirza’s youngest son Hassam Mirza is contesting on the GDA’s ticket. According to a local analyst, Hassam’s position is strong because of his family’s background. NA-230 comprises of Badin, Golarchi and some parts of Tando Bago talukas. The PPP has given a ticket to Rasool Baksh Chandio of PPP whereas Dr Fehmida Mirza is contesting in this constituency on the GDA’s ticket. If Fehmida Mirza wins, this would be her fifth consecutive win. She would be the first Pakistani woman to win for the fifth consecutive time on a general seat. Prior to this, only Benazir Bhutto and Nusrat Bhutto won four consecutive times. Fehmida has been winning consistently since the 1996 elections. “This is going to be a tough competition but Chandio is in a strong position because of his clan’s votes,” Samoon added. Published in Daily Times, July 16th 2018.