Daily Times

May 8 was ‘Victory in Europe’ or VE Day, marking the surrender of Nazi Germany to Allied Forces in 1945, and the end of World War II in Europe. Ironically, US President Donald Trump’s abrogation and withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, despite opposition from members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and Germany, has given VE a whole new meaning. It can now be referred to as ‘Viral Exit Day’ from the JCPOA.

Make no mistake: this unilateral action could potentially be as catastrophic as George W Bush’s ill-fated 2003 assault into Iraq over weapons of mass destruction that had ceased to exist long ago. The assumption then was that by democratising Iraq, the geostrategic landscape of the Greater Middle East would be forever changed. It has. But not for the better.

The White House’s assumption, beyond claiming this was the ‘worst deal ever’ and honouring a campaign promise, is that a better agreement can be negotiated by re-imposing economic sanctions on Iran. Unspoken is the expectation that sanctions will so damage Iran’s economy that the clerical autocracy may be overthrown. But does anyone in the White House have any sense of history?

During the decade of the Vietnam War from the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution in 1964 until the forceful reunification of that divided country under the North in 1975, three American presidents assumed that Hanoi could be compelled by a policy of gradual escalation through bombing to give up its aggression against Saigon. Nearly three decades later, another president assumed that Iraq was ripe for democracy. But imposing Western style government on countries that have little background or appetite for American style democracy does not work unless those states have been virtually destroyed; unconditionally surrendered; and have accepted the permanent presence of American forces that continues to this day in Germany, Japan and Italy.

The tight sanctions regime placed on Iraq before the war strengthened Saddam’s control over his people, as he alone was able to dole out the resources that came from the oil for food program designed to prevent starvation of the Iraqis. Tehran understands this

Critics of the JCPOA argued that this agreement did not cover Iran’s testing of ballistic missiles or its engagement in regional affairs; particularly in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. However the fundamental question is whether the purpose of preventing Iran from ever acquiring nuclear weapons was sufficient reason for the agreement. Despite what critics may say or imagine, the JCPOA would achieve this by requiring a permanent inspection regime overseen by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Some argued that inspectors were not allowed access to all Iranian military bases where secret nuclear weapons facilities could be operating. However, given the extensive infrastructure to enrich bomb level uranium or reprocessing to manufacture plutonium, these could not be done covertly. And the one Iranian plutonium reactor at Arak has had its core sealed with concrete. With IAEA inspectors on site, Iran could never manufacture the fissile material needed for a nuclear weapon. Of course it is entirely possible that Iran could abandon the agreement.

Furthermore, the other signatories to the JCPOA do not have to return to a sanctions regime. The US has responded to this by threatening secondary sanctions. But, if this occurs at a time when the US has already declared tariffs on our trading partners, unchecked, this could irreversibly tear apart the Western alliance. And do not think Russia will forgo this opportunity to weaken Western cohesion as well as exploit its chances for further commerce with Iran.

Returning to the second Iraq War, the Bush administration never considered what would happen to the country after Saddam Hussein was toppled. Nor did anyone seem to understand that the tight sanctions regime placed on Iraq before the war strengthened Saddam’s control over his people, as he alone was able to dole out the resources that came from the oil for food program designed to prevent starvation of the Iraqis. Tehran understands this.

The administration hopes that the coming summit with North Korea will be such a diplomatic success as to erase the dangers of withdrawing from the JCPOA. We will see. However, the first step should be an announcement of White House plans for what is next for Iran and the region. With no Plan B, it will be no surprise if the decision for a viral exit from the JCPOA could be as damaging as attacking Iraq over imaginary WMDs.

The writer has served on the Senior Advisory Group for Supreme Allied Commander Europe (2004-2016) and is currently Senior Advisor at Washington DC’s Atlantic Council, chairman of two private companies and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. A former naval person, he commanded a destroyer in the Persian Gulf and led over 150 missions and operations in Vietnam as a Swift Boat skipper. His latest book is Anatomy of Failure: Why America Has Lost Every War It Starts. The writer can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman

Published in Daily Times, May 16th 2018.