China’s hand in Indo-Pak arms race

Author: Daily Times

Forty-four years on and the Indo-Pak nuclear arms race is still going strong. And China appears all out to boost Islamabad’s capacity. For this week saw Beijing de-classify details of the sale of a high-tech missile tracking system aimed at catalysing the Pakistani military’s development of Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) -technology that involves an expanded delivery system able to shoot multiple nuclear warhead-tipped missiles at numerous targets. This is the first time that any country has sold Pakistan this highly sensitive technology.

Though both sides are keeping mum for now as to the price of the deal, this capability has long been on the Pakistani security establishment’s wish list; ever since India test-fired its first interceptor missile back in 2016, as part of its greater Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system. According to experts, this has potentially enabled New Delhi to shoot Pakistani or Chinese atomic bombs out of the sky in the eventuality of nuclear war in South Asia. Thus, so the logic goes, now that Islamabad has entered the MIRV club — alongside the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — it will have New Delhi where it wants it. Though the latter may well respond by pursuing a more sophisticated BMD system; one capable of countering MIRV technology. Thereby continuing this destabilising and expensive nuclear arms race.

So, what is China’s motive?

The decision to sell such capability to Pakistan is likely aimed at ‘neutralising’ New Delhi’s testing of the nuclear-capable Agni-V Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in January. All ICBMs have a minimum range of 5,000km. And given that Beijing rests a mere 3,778km from New Delhi — it is easy to understand why China would seek to boost the latter’s nuclear rival. Especially considering last year’s standoff at Doklam. Thus the battle lines have been drawn. Xi Jinping, who recently took on the mantle of President for Life, this month warned that China was ready to fight a “bloody battle” against its enemies. This may or may not have been directed at the Modi regime that has been busy cosying up to Taiwan; which Beijing considers an integral part of its territory. Similarly, it could have been a message for the Muslim separatists that it says threaten its sovereignty. Be that as it may, such cautioning should put both Pakistan and India on notice.

When all is said and done, the Chinese military footprint in the region is here to stay. There has recently been talk of bases on both sides of the Af-Pak border. Yet by interfering in the bilateral arms race — Beijing is playing a risky game. Not least because such measures could be linked to keeping the CPEC infrastructure projects safe; something that Islamabad routinely accuses New Delhi of actively trying to sabotage. Which, in turn, raises the ongoing question of Chinese military boots on the ground here.

Then there is the danger that as soon as either India or Pakistan gains nuclear advantage over the other, any one side could be lulled into a false sense of security; with disastrous ramifications all round. For there are three nuclear powers vying for regional dominance and the issue of disputed borders is numerous.

It would be far more prudent in the long-term, therefore, if all players — including the US and Russia — prioritised the welfare of the collective citizenry. China, for its part, has lifted an overwhelming majority of its population out of poverty. Sadly, the same cannot be said of either India or Pakistan.  *

Published in Daily Times, March 24th 2018.

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