Daily Times

Islamabad-April 1: The recent political comportment of three major political parties of Pakistan, PMLN, PPP & PTI, shows they are trying hard at breaking lose from the fixed-pastures-formula that the general elections of 2013 had set for them. Punjab was given to PMLN, Sindh had confined PPP, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa got PTI, while Balochistan remained, well, Balochistan – with its peculiar chaos arrayed in fine craquelure of political esoterica – only to be understood by those living and breathing it. PTI has incessantly been trying to unfetter itself from KP and touching the Punjab chords since the last election. With the dramatic return of former President Asif Ali Zardari, PPP is showing sudden interest in winning over the land of kingmakers we call Punjab.Responding to which, PMLN has chosen to knock the doors PPP’s stronghold, the Sufi Sindh.

Sindh needs an alternative political option for the people who have perpetually been under the burden of poverty, unemployment, severe lack of governance and provision of basic amenities like health and education services, since times immemorial. This huge political vacuum in which PPP has been working as a lone king, offers possibilities for both, PTI and PMLN. PTI has not made any serious effort to tap into the electoral space Sindh offers, except some halfhearted attempts at reaching out anti-PPP feudals last year. PMLN on the other hand, has a track record of making new friends among the disgruntled feudal lords of Sindh just when the elections are around the corner. This time, however, it might need to make extra efforts for luring the ‘electables’ in case it wants to create serious dent in PPP’s electoral performance in 2018.

PMLN’s big problem, just like the PTI’s, would be the lack of a Sindhi and Mohajir leader at the face of its central leadership who could connect with the soul of rural and urban Sindh. This makes this party close to being an ‘outsider’ in Sindh.

Two main powerful lobbies in rural Sindh are its feudal lords and Pirs who have the ultimate power to grab votes, and the nationalists who rule the ‘Sindh narrative’ without having a prominent vote bank. PMLN has tried to lure both in the past. But the usual pattern has been, PMLN tries to get close to both these lobbies before the elections and within a year after elections, it alienates the both. This happens because of the insincerity and lack of genuine commitment towards the core concerns of Sindh.

In terms of getting nationalists and feudal-Pir conglomerate on its side, PPP has not fared any better either.Many powerful feudals have jumped ship from PMLN, PML-Q, PML-F etc. to the PPP in recent past. But there still remain some feudal lords who are not getting any space in PPP despite all efforts. The party, who would grab these feudals, might grab votes and eventually some seats.

But these feudals would be dictated by the Sindh narrative, which is in the hands of nationalists. In their quest for being electorally relevant, some nationalists are trying to land in the camps of anti-PPP feudals who in turn are looking towards a mainstream party that could secure their interest in the face of a vindictive provincial government that nearly everyone is sure, would be dominated by the PPP.

Now, this desired ‘mainstream party’ could be PTI, but it sounds a far-fetched idea, as PTI has not demonstrated any penchant of dealing with feudals. Imran Khan has invested himself too much with the industrialists and property dealers of Punjab. Absorbing more feudals and looking after their interests would further alienate Mr. Khan from his slogan of ‘naya Pakistan’ because like the business elite he has around him, the feudal class is a strong status quo force. There is a reason why the plight of the people of Sindh has not changed even a bit in last 70 years, even beyond the PPP years of rule. Every single government that Sindh has had was formed by the feudal lords irrespective of the parties or military rule. But with the patience level of Mr. Khan, political accommodation of powerful political class of Sindhi feudals seems doubly difficult. However, if powerful personalities like Liaquat Jatoi are on PTI’s side and like Unnar, are ready to organize anti-PPP forces of Sindh in support of PTI, it can have a meager chance of becoming a marginal electoral factor on Sindh horizon.

Mian Nawaz Sharif on the other hand is in best position to provide security to the interests of powerful feudal lobby who can fetch votes for PMLN from the poor through a strong patronage network that dominates Sindh’s politics since decades.

With the nationalists, PMLN already has contacts. It now needs to get closer to nationalists-with-some-vote-bank like Mumtaz Bhutto (although he didn’t win any elections since 1997) and Jalal Mahmood Shah (grandson of G. M. Syed) alongside initiating meaningful development projects. Schemes benefitting the poorest of the poor, like Health Cards, might impact a change in voting pattern in 2018. But limiting the benefits of such schemes to the advantage of just the Sherazi clan of Thatha & Sujawal and Raheela Magsi of Tando Allahyar (who is Senator from Islamabad), might backfire.

There are many thorns in PMLN’s way in Sindh that it has to at least appear to clear away if it wants make a headway here. There is a reason why powerful politician of Sindh are disgruntled from PMLN and are flocking around PPP. Prime Minister has to become a stakeholder of Sindh’s development and own people’s interests instead of looking at it as a vote-generating machine. Visiting Sindh every four years alienates his own party’s Sindhi leaders, which is evident from the ‘Punjab speed’ of defections.

Dealing with nationalists is different from dealing with feudals. Nationalists would want prior agreement on critical issues of Sindh unlike feudals who would just need to protect their patronage and rent-seeking politics.Importantly, any accord with nationalists would require PMLN to keep in mind the key concerns of Sindh while making serious efforts at resolving or at least negotiating those concerns. Not to forget that PMLN has a feather in its cap in the form of Water Apportionment Accord of 1991. The Accord, no doubt, had many gaps and flaws, but remains the only effort to date for settling water disputes among the provinces especially Punjab-Sindh conflict. So far, one doesn’t see PMLN building on such achievements.

PMLN will have to learn what ails Sindh and what Sindh actually wants. It is dangerous level of poverty and unemployment going hand in hand with cruelest of the patronage politics model. Breaking all that would be an impossible challenge. But for the time being, a strong alternative needs to be provided to the people of Sindh for dragging out PPP from the comfort zone and creating urgency for the development of Sindh.

Marvi Sirmed is a staff member and can be emailed at marvisirmed@gmail.com, accessed on Twitter @marvisirmed