Daily Times

The Panama Papers case verdict might have prompted both the ruling and opposition parties to distribute sweetmeat. Yet it remains to be seen how the SC ruling will affect the country’s political environment over the next few months.

Three out of the sitting five judges opined that it was not within the court’s jurisdiction to disqualify a sitting prime minister on the basis of unsubstantiated evidence. Which is why the SC has ordered that a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) be formed to probe the corruption allegations further.

That the three judges are cognisant of the impact of improper use of Article 184 (3) of the Constitution in terms of the court’s original jurisdiction is to be welcomed, especially in terms of expanding, however vaguely, the realm of fundamental rights as envisaged in Article 62 (disqualification of a member of Parliament).

In agreeing to disagree on applying Article 62 (1) (f), which provides that parliamentary eligibility is based on, among other things, an honest person against whom no court has issued a ruling – the SC bench has set a precedent for caution in these matters. Though in the long-term, it is hoped that parliament takes up the matter to remove any existing ambiguity by way of constitutional amendment.

The JIT formed to investigate the allegations will be headed by a senior FIA officer not below the rank of an additional director general, and shall consist of representatives of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the Military Intelligence (MI), the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB).

The JIT will submit fortnightly progress reports about its investigations to a new SC bench to be constituted by the chief justice. A final report has to be submitted within 60 days to let the bench examine the matter of disqualification of the prime minister.

JITs are normally constituted in terrorism-related cases but in this case, the court seems to have taken this unusual route because the head of the NAB, the competent institution to conduct such a probe, was “indifferent and even unwilling to perform his part”. The court’s observation about the NAB head has eroded his moral authority to head such an important institution.

The most important role in the JIT would be that of the ISI and the MI. These institutions have no mandate or capacity to investigate financial matters, but perhaps their relevance to the case is based on their involvement in political affairs during the time when the Sharifs were making all that disputed money. The Mehran Bank scandal is a case in point. One of the two intelligence agencies comprising part of the JIT had been cast in poor light after its then head gave a testimony in the court admitting to his role in engineering rigging of 1988 general elections. However, it’s important to note that he had said that he acted in his personal capacity.

Nevertheless, the PM’s actions in the coming days will determine how the JIT investigation affects civil-military relations. The hardliners in the security establishment might find this as an opportunity to bring the PM into line on many counts. For instance, the PM might have to stop being indifferent to the Kulbhushan Jadhav case, alongside being more active on the Pak-Afghan and Pak-India fronts, particularly on the Kashmir dispute. Thus, the Foreign Office and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) might be taking a hardline on these issues in the coming days. Moreover, the PMO might try to keep the NAB, the FIA and the IB on a tight leash. Since the latter two agencies report to an Interior minister known for taking autonomous positions, the emergent situation may require the PM to keep a constant check on internal rifts within the cabinet.

On the economic front, the 2,000-points gain by the Pakistan Stock Exchange immediately after the announcement of the verdict shows that there is strong support among investors for political stability.

The stability of the political environment in the coming weeks will also depend on activities of the opposition parties. If they are able to pose an effective united front against the PM, he might have to think about out-of-the-box solutions.

The temporary respite afforded to the PM by the SC verdict is a continued travail as well. Nonetheless, the PML-N will be referring to the verdict as an affirmation of the PM’s innocence in front the party’s vote bank, which seems to be growing despite a fierce campaign by some media persons and opposition parties. If the PM dissolves the assemblies and announces a fresh election before the completion of his term, he stands to gain by laying a claim to political martyrdom. This may put the PTI and the PPP in a situation where they appear to be anti-democracy. Besides, Nawaz will also have his big-ticket infrastructure development projects to refer to in front of the electorate. All of this may be enough to sway the popular vote in his favour yet again.

Marvi Sirmed is a staff member and can be emailed at marvisirmed@gmail.com, accessed on Twitter @marvisirmed