The latest GLOF warning for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is not the first, and it won’t be the last. This week, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority told local administrations to brace for glacial lake outbursts as temperatures rise and monsoon rains hit. Villages in Chitral, Upper Dir, Swat and Kohistan are the first in harm’s way. If a lake bursts, walls of water and debris can sweep away homes, bridges and farmland in minutes.
Pakistan is home to more than 7,000 glaciers, the largest concentration outside the polar regions. Over 7 million people live in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s mountainous north. About 800,000 live within 15 kilometres of a glacier. One recent study found that nearly 2 million Pakistanis are exposed to high-risk glacial flood zones. These floods are increasing: from 2018 to 2021, there were about 14 GLOFs a year, but that spiked to 75 in 2022. Around the world, 15 million people face the same threat. Last year, a glacial outburst in India killed at least 179 people because an early warning system was still unfinished.
Early warnings can save lives. But a siren means nothing if there is no shelter or road out. Agencies like the PDMA and NDMA have made progress by installing sensors, setting up local weather stations and training communities. Yet gaps remain glaring. In many valleys, families do not know when a lake above them grows unstable. Some local councils say they only hear about evacuation plans once floodwaters are already roaring downstream.
Tourists have been warned to avoid risky areas, but for villagers who live and farm there, moving out is not so simple. They need bridges that hold, embankments that stand and roads that can carry them to safety. Officials often talk about “community resilience”, but real resilience comes from preparation, not patching up damage later.
Accountability should be non-negotiable. After the 2022 deadly monsoon floods, there were promises of early warning systems and rapid response. Yet dozens have already died in flash floods this season, with many victims in the same vulnerable valleys. Climate finance from abroad is welcome, but if it stops at reports and meetings, nothing changes on the ground. Each warning should be an order to act. Drills must happen. Embankments must be repaired. Evacuation routes must stay open. Leaders in Islamabad should know that slogans, no matter how feel-good, cannot keep families safe when the next lake bursts. *