The remarks made by Indian Home Minister Amit Shah-declaring that India will “never restore” the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and intends to divert Pakistan’s share of water to Rajasthan-must be treated with the seriousness they deserve. These are not off-the-cuff comments. They reflect a dangerous posture by a senior Indian official, one that openly defies international law and directly threatens Pakistan’s water security.
The IWT is not a courtesy extended to Pakistan. It is a binding international treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, following nearly a decade of negotiations. It has governed the use and division of six rivers of the Indus basin between Pakistan and India for over 60 years. Even at the height of war and political rupture, the treaty endured because both sides understood what was at stake. India’s current position appears determined to unravel that understanding.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office was right to call out this “brazen disregard” for legal obligations. The treaty does not grant either party the right to suspend it unilaterally. Article XII of the agreement makes that abundantly clear. To weaponise water in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions is an act of strategic recklessness.
The impact on Pakistan would be immediate and severe. Our agriculture, already under stress from depleting groundwater, rising temperatures, and erratic rainfall, relies on uninterrupted flows from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Farmers across Punjab, Sindh, and southern KP depend on this system to grow wheat, rice, and other essential crops. Disruption to these flows, even temporarily, would damage livelihoods, food supplies, and rural stability.
But this is not just a bilateral matter. India’s willingness to flout a long-standing agreement calls into question its credibility as a responsible regional actor. If a state can unilaterally cast aside a treaty that has held through wars, what message does that send to smaller neighbours? Or to future mediators? Delhi’s recent attempts to reinterpret the IWT (to issue notices, build dams without consultation, or call for its “renegotiation”) have been met with firm resistance from Pakistan, and rightly so.
What Pakistan needs now is not just firm diplomacy, but international attention. The World Bank, as guarantor of the treaty, cannot remain silent. Nor can countries that claim to champion a rules-based order. India has much to gain by respecting the treaty. Pakistan, for its part, has never violated its terms, even under duress. It has pursued arbitration through recognised forums. It has attended technical meetings. It has sought resolution, not escalation. But good faith cannot be one-sided. It goes without saying that Pakistan will defend its rights under the IWT. The government will continue to pursue all legal and diplomatic avenues. But it must also prepare for the reality that India may no longer see the IWT as binding. If so, that must be treated as the crossing of a line.
Pakistan did not choose this confrontation. But it will respond to it. *