U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Iran could move towards developing nuclear weapons if the U.S. attacks its underground nuclear facility in Fordow or if Israel assassinates Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. While Iran has not yet made a final decision to build a nuclear bomb, it already possesses enriched uranium sufficient for such a weapon, The New York Times reported.
Officials stated that even though Israel has recently targeted Iran’s nuclear sites, there is no concrete evidence suggesting Iran has begun building a nuclear weapon. However, American intelligence believes that certain high-impact events, such as a direct strike or leadership assassination, could provoke Tehran into crossing that line.
White House officials held an intelligence briefing on Thursday, where CIA Director John Ratcliffe told senior authorities that Iran is dangerously close to obtaining nuclear capabilities. According to White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt, Iran now has all the materials needed to build a bomb—only a final order from its top leadership remains.
Interestingly, Israeli intelligence agency Mossad believes Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in just 15 days, though U.S. intelligence remains cautious. Some American officials suggest Iran would need several months to a year, depending on the type of weapon it aims to build.
Meanwhile, analysts believe that Iran’s large stockpile of uranium is part of a deliberate strategy to be “nuclear-ready” if needed. U.S. military officials also confirmed this risk, with General Michael Kurilla stating in Congress that Iran could prepare weapon-grade uranium in a week and assemble multiple bombs in three weeks, if it fully commits.
Still, there’s no direct evidence that Iran has begun weapon construction. The uranium stock is enriched up to 60%, but a bomb requires 90% enrichment. Experts say Iran also needs to build a bomb structure and possibly miniaturize it to fit on a missile—steps that would take more time and technical precision.
As tensions rise, U.S. and Israeli policymakers remain divided on timelines and threats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that Iran’s actions pose an immediate threat to Israel’s existence, while some U.S. officials stress that panic over the 15-day estimate may be driven more by politics than intelligence.