Pakistan expects inflation to pick up to between 3 percent and 4 percent in June, the Finance Ministry said in its monthly economic report released Thursday, as the country prepares to announce its federal budget for the fiscal year 2025-26 on June 10, a date that falls during the Eid Al-Adha holidays.
The ministry said consumer price inflation was projected to ease between 1.5 percent and 2 percent year-on-year in May, following months of steady decline driven by monetary tightening and a drop in food and energy prices.
However, it noted that inflationary pressures could resurface slightly next month due to seasonal factors and base effects. “Improved weather conditions, better crop yields and a stable exchange rate have helped reduce inflation to a historical low,” the report said, adding that “inflation is projected to remain between 1.5-2.0 percent in May, with a possible rise to 3.0-4.0 percent by June 2025.”
The State Bank of Pakistan, in its half-yearly report last month, forecast average inflation for the fiscal year ending June 2025 to remain within 5.5 percent to 7.5 percent, reflecting easing cost pressures across key commodities.
Finance Adviser Khurram Schehzad on Thursday confirmed the official timeline for the country’s fiscal announcements in a social media post aimed at dispelling speculation about possible delays due to the Eid Al-Adha holidays.
“The dates are firm,” he said on platform X. “As communicated earlier, the upcoming Federal Budget FY26 is on schedule to be announced on June 10, 2025. Similarly, the upcoming Pakistan Economic Survey FY25 is scheduled to be announced on June 9, 2025.”
Pakistan’s macroeconomic outlook has improved in recent months, supported by a stronger current account balance, improved remittances and falling inflation.
However, authorities remain cautious as they seek to build on recent economic stabilization, steer the country toward gradual growth and reaffirm their commitment to ongoing economic reforms.