By May 20, 2025, I had completed my research on the claimed kills of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) over its archrival, the Indian Air Force (IAF). In a short video on my YouTube Channel, “Reflections by Dr Shamsi,” I claimed that the PAF had become the most successful air force of the 21st century after at least 10 IAF aircraft were knocked out of the skies either directly or indirectly.
I fully understand that claims and counterclaims are part of warfare, and it is challenging to confirm an aerial kill in the absence of the wreckage of the downed aircraft. While it was easy to claim the MiG-21 Bis of the IAF, which was shot down on February 27, 2019, by the PAF, because the wreckage fell in Pakistan’s territory and the pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan was captured, the IAF’s claim of the F-16 was declared as nonsense by none other than a US Defence Expert, Dr Christine Fair.
My claims are based on academic research and verified by at least two former leaders of the PAF. Secondly, many of the Indian viewers have since my claim reminded me of successful Indian attacks on Pakistani cities and PAF Bases between May 7 and 10, 2025. Still, none have refuted my claim that the PAF was responsible for at least 10 losses that the IAF has suffered since February 2019, making the PAF the most successful air force in the world in the 21st century. IAF losses include an SU-30 MKI, a MiG-21 BIS, and an MI-171 V5, shot down by the Indian Air Defence, primarily because the PAF overwhelmed the zone of operations.
Fast-forward to May 2025, and IAF losses include multiple state-of-the-art French-made Dassault Rafale, a Mirage 2000, an SU 30MKI, and a MiG 29. In support of its claims, the PAF provided “crash locations, cockpit voice recorder (CVR) transcripts of the pilots’ final communications, and flight data.” The combination of PL-15E missiles on Chinese-origin Chengdu J-10 fighters achieved a total surprise, thereby shooting down some of the best fighter jets the IAF had. The official confirmation of these claims may take years of intelligence and investigations by independent defence experts from various countries. Still, circumstantial evidence suggests that the PAF came out clean and most of its claims were on the dot. Perhaps, it is necessary to mention that IAF did not get airborne after the night of the 6th and 7th clashes with the PAF, and India resorted to surface-to-surface missiles, and drone attacks on Pakistani cities and the PAF Bases.
For now, the PAF can celebrate its unique record of some 10 aerial kills against a formidable air force, the IAF, which no other air force has achieved in the 21st century.
There is an uneasy ceasefire between the two arch-rivals, brokered by the US. Nevertheless, India’s hardline leadership under PM Modi is not showing signs of easing. It continues to threaten further punitive strikes on Pakistan for its alleged involvement in an attack on the tourist site of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, in which around 26 innocent people lost their lives. Pakistan condemned the brutal attack and offered its sincerest cooperation in an independent investigation. Therefore, “the possibility of yet another military engagement between India and Pakistan, similar to February 2019, exists with varying degrees of probability, thus challenging the efficacy of nuclear deterrence. Until the probabilities of military engagements are minimised, the possibilities of peace and stability in the region would remain elusive.” One can add to the far more intense and violent clashes in a four-day war in May 2025.
Since the PAF was the automatic choice to respond to India’s aggression in any domain, it did what it had trained itself for and what the nation had expected of it. Pakistan Army also responded with full force at the Line of Control (LOC).
After repeated victories in the aerial battles, the PAF appears to have achieved cognitive superiority over the IAF. The aerial kills by PL 15E AAMs, launched from J 10C aircraft, against the Rafale aircraft, at a distance of over 190km, may have created a record of the longest aerial kill in aviation history. The impact of this kill is going to last on the hearts and minds of the IAF aircrew for ages, and from now on, whenever an IAF pilot approaches the war zone against the PAF, they will assume that the opponent is a killer combination, J 10C equipped with PL 15 E.
For now, the PAF can celebrate its unique record of some 10 aerial kills against a formidable air force, the IAF, which no other air force has achieved in the 21st century. However, the PAF must know that it has won an aerial battle only, and an all-out war is still to come, even under the overhang of nuclear deterrence, because the enemy is arrogant and irrational and does not recognise the consequences of a nuclear conflict.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”