A seismic shift in regional dynamics unfolded in Kabul on Saturday when a groundbreaking trilateral dialogue convened by the Taliban brought together Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China. For Islamabad, this meeting could provide a potential, albeit cautiously approached, realignment of the region, driven by the urgent need for economic connectivity and a shared understanding of pressing security threats.
The economic motivations behind this dialogue could not be more clear. As Pakistan faces its own financial hurdles and seeks to enhance regional trade, the prospect of extending the gamechanger China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan is particularly appealing. Such a development could open new pathways for commerce, improve connections with Central Asia, and help stabilise our western border. Furthermore, the much-talked-about ambitious vision of joint industrial parks and special economic zones in Afghanistan has the potential to invigorate the local economy; creating fresh markets for Pakistani goods.
However, Islamabad cannot easily forget our chequered past where Afghan Taliban has continued to pay our decades-old support and hospitality with a bizarre currency: sanctuaries to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is responsible, nay proud of, numerous attacks within Pakistan. While the trilateral commitment to prevent the use of territory for cross-border attacks is a positive step, it needs to be translated into concrete, verifiable actions. Pakistan’s security establishment will undoubtedly be closely monitoring whether the Taliban demonstrates a genuine willingness and capability to dismantle all militant networks, including those sharing ideological ties. The effectiveness of this trilateral security agreement can only be assessed by a noticeable decline in cross-border violence
One of the most strategically significant, and potentially contentious, outcomes would be the reported agreement to restrict India’s involvement in Afghanistan to diplomatic engagements. On one hand, it could offer a strategic advantage, potentially reducing perceived Indian influence along the western flank, using which it allegedly plays a crucial role in destabilising efforts. But it also risks further entrenching regional divisions (especially at such a critical juncture) and could be viewed with considerable unease by other stakeholders. Pakistan, therefore, needs to tread carefully, ensuring that this trilateral engagement does not inadvertently exacerbate existing tensions or lead to a more polarized regional landscape. Our hard-earned military successes that have put us back in the good graces of the international community better not be jeopardised by diplomatic mistakes. *