The Pahalgam attack once again brought two nuclear-armed neighbors, India and Pakistan, on the brink of dangerous escalation, which could lead to an inadvertent limited or full-scale war. Indian leadership vowed to punish ‘terrorists and their backers,’ followed by an unprecedented move, Prime Minister Modi’s government suspended the Indus water treaty, which is a lifeline for 240 million Pakistani people. As expected, Islamabad labeled it a ‘false flag operation’ and retaliated with several measures, including the suspension of the Shimla Agreement. Pakistan’s civilian and military leadership made it clear that any attempt to ‘stop or divert the flow of water’ would be seen as an ‘act of war’ and ‘respond with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.’ In addition to this, any military attack would be retaliated against with full force. However, it is not the first time both arch rivals come closer to a conflict, in 2016 Uri attack and 2019 Pulwama attack and subsequent Indian military strike on Balakot and Pakistani retaliation brought two military foe in a tit for tat confrontation which later de-escalated as both nations found no incentive to escalate. Nonetheless, this time the situation is a bit more complex than previously. After Pulwama and Balakot, on 5th August 2019, the Modi government smashed the statehood of Indian held Jammu and Kashmir through abrogation of Article 370 and imposed a ruthless direct rule and suspended the democratic elections for five years. Therefore, keeping in view the previous developments, the current crisis is much more intense and has serious consequences for regional peace and stability. From a strategic perspective, the present attack is different in many ways from the Uri and Pulwama attacks. In the past, the prime target was military or security forces, but this attack targeted civilian tourists, mostly arriving from different parts of India, therefore, it has a wider societal appeal and global sympathy. And subsequently, it built intense pressure on the BJP government to take effective action and restore the balance of deterrence. Over the centuries, human civilizations rise and fall — not linked to abundance or scarcity of resources — but to the folly of human agency. In the strategic community circle, there is almost unanimity of views on one thing that India will surely take military action against Pakistan at any time soon. Last time, after the Pulwama attack in 2019, the Indian military struck Balakot 11 days after the attack. So the clock is ticking, and the Indian premier locked himself in a commitment trap. PM Modi’s latest statement, importantly, while meeting with the tri-services chief, gave ‘complete operational freedom’ to his forces to carry out punitive attacks against the perpetrators and their supporters across the Line of Control (LOC). However, informed analysts are interpreting this move from different perspectives, one says that Modi tactfully jumped out of this due to potential political fallout, and made the military as prime casualty in case of unintended consequences, and created a space to shift the blame. Other says that by broadcasting the high-level meeting on national television, Modi projected himself as a tough guy and boosted his political credentials as the elections are about to take place in India’s third most populous state of Bihar. However, it remains to be seen how far PM Modi’s big gamble will bolster his political standing or cut him to size. Interestingly, as per reports and latest statements from world leaders, especially the US, Russia, the EU, and China, there is a bit of disappointment for the Indian government as it failed to galvanize the support that it needed for any decisive military actions against Pakistan. Reports emerged from an Indian government briefing which they give it to foreign diplomats and importantly to P5 countries suggests that India failed to form a broader international consensus and unable to present irrefutable evidence of Pakistan’s government involvement in the Pahalgam attacks except few electronic signatures which are very vague and hard to present as credible evidence. It appears that PM Modi boxed himself up in a commitment trap due to reckless and jingoistic statements. Now he is in a catch-22 situation where any decision has serious political repercussions for him and strategic implications for Indian society. In the Uri and Pulwama cases, PM Modi had an ample political and strategic space with less pressure on him than now, as previously the Congress-led government did not take any military action against Pakistan in the wake of the Mumbai Attacks. But PM Modi’s Surgical Strikes (2016) and Balakot Strikes (2019) raised the threshold and expectation very high, and he is finding it difficult to find face saving and satisfy his RSS nationalist support base. One thing is very sure that in this situation, it would not be easy for the Modi government to walk away from a new strategic posturing and maintain a strongman image in the eyes of the Indian public. In present circumstances, it has now become a compulsion rather than a strategic choice for PM Modi to take effective action against Pakistan. Less than the retributive action, he would not be able to satisfy the war-frenzy media and the popular public sentiments. This situation should serve as a wake-up call and lesson for political leadership to desist from amplifying the public expectations, where the leadership itself becomes a victim of its self-created demon. Indian political and strategic planners must understand that the present Hindu society and civilization are not an exception or an emerging unique phenomenon in the context of the progression of human civilizations. Over the centuries, human civilizations rise and fall – not linked to abundance or scarcity of resources – but to the folly of human agency. Therefore, incumbent Indian leadership must take responsibility and think beyond ‘tunnel vision’ and ‘Hindutva-RSS’ ideology. They have the serious undertaking on their shoulder of the well-being of 1.4 billion people; any miscalculations and reckless moves could jeopardize the steady economic growth and dent their global aspiration for Indian society. As per the Foreign Affairs Forum on the ‘Economic Impacts of a Full-Scale India-Pakistan War’, the daily costs of military operations for India could reach $670 million, with broader economic losses potentially reaching $17.8bn – equivalent to a 20pc GDP contraction over four weeks of conflict. Similarly, in the wake of the Pulwama crisis the India suffered a $12 billion loss within one week. And the same goes for Pakistan, as its economy is reeling and the cost of electricity and gas is skyrocketing due to the IMF’s strict conditions. Therefore, any potential military conflict will not be cost-free for both India and Pakistan. Ruling Indian political leadership and intelligentsia must ponder this question seriously- is this war worth fighting? Will this war help India to get near to its goals of attaining global power status, or will this make it miss the target? If the leadership keeps in mind the broader questions, then I don’t think they will be able to find themselves in the self-created illusion of entitlement, constructed and sold for trivial political and ideological gains. The writer is a geopolitical and security analyst. He can be reached at tahirdss@gmail.com