The world has seen this before – a momentary pause in war, a glimmer of hope, only to be shattered by the cold reality of unresolved conflicts. The latest push for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, initiated by the United States, follows the same pattern. It is a pause, not peace. And history has proven that temporary ceasefires are often little more than breathers before the next round of bloodshed. Vladimir Putin has not dismissed the thought outright, but his scepticism is telling. To Moscow, a truce without major Ukrainian concessions is meaningless. Russia wants guarantees: Ukraine’s neutrality, recognition of Russian control over annexed territories, and an end to Western military support. Ukraine, backed by Europe, refuses to concede an inch. Despite deep war fatigue, Kyiv is in no position to back down. For Ukraine, this is a fight for survival as an independent state. But at what cost? If last week’s White House has taught us anything, it is that the US may not have the same long-term appetite for war. The flow of weapons and aid that sustains Ukraine’s resistance could slow, leaving it vulnerable at a critical moment. And what of Russia? Putin, despite battlefield setbacks, has the advantage of time. Sanctions have hurt, but not crippled, the Russian economy. The Kremlin has adapted to isolation, forging deeper economic ties with China and Iran. Moscow believes it can outlast the West’s patience-and that belief is shaping its approach to this war. This war is not just about Ukraine and Russia; it is about the reordering of global power. The United States and its allies see Ukraine as the last line of defense against Russian expansionism. Moscow views the war as a direct challenge to Western dominance. And China, watching closely, knows that the outcome will set a precedent for its own ambitions, particularly regarding Taiwan. Meanwhile, Europe faces the mounting costs of prolonged conflict – rising energy prices, economic strain, and the risk of political instability. A frozen war benefits no one, yet a lasting peace remains elusive. Western nations must ask themselves: is their commitment to Ukraine sustainable in the long run? And if not, what is the exit strategy? Wars do not end because guns fall silent for a month. They end when political realities force warring sides to rethink their ambitions. If Ukraine and its allies truly seek peace, they must be prepared to engage in negotiations that go beyond temporary truces and military posturing. *