European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in her recent remarks in New Delhi, doubled down on Western support for India, framing it as a rising power, a counterweight to China, and a model of economic progress. Emphasizing “shared values of democracy and freedom” as the foundation of the EU-India strategic partnership, she pledged to step up defense and security cooperation, aiming to set India up as a key player in the Indo-Pacific. Decades of Western backing have let India drift into strategic miscalculations – monopolizing regional water resources, fuelling hyper-nationalism, and plunging into an unsustainable arms race. Now, as the EU moves ahead with plans to strengthen India’s defense capabilities, the implications for South Asia are far-reaching. Rather than bringing about stability, military reinforcement risks stirring up regional tensions and widening existing fault lines. The geopolitical dynamics of South Asia have long revolved around water. The Partition of 1947 left Pakistan hydrologically dependent on India, and the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was meant to sort out a structured water-sharing framework. However, over time, India has played up its upstream control, building an extensive network of dams and diversions that have chipped away at Pakistan’s agricultural stability. While this gave India a short-term advantage, it is now running up against the consequences of its own reckless water mismanagement. The state of Punjab, India’s “breadbasket,” is running out of groundwater, and soil degradation is setting in. The Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River, a key tributary of the Indus, has sparked disputes and soured relations between India and Pakistan. The Brahmaputra, a crucial water source for India’s northeast, originates in Tibet, where China’s dam-building projects have rung alarm bells. At the same time, India’s embrace of Hindutva-fuelled nationalism has backfired. While it has shored up domestic political support, it has also deepened social fragmentation. The systematic targeting of minorities, the crackdown on dissent, and the muzzling of independent media has made governance increasingly fragile. Ursula von der Leyen’s claim of “common values” with India falls flat when tested against the reality of democratic backsliding. This internal instability is now spilling over into foreign relations. India’s neighbours – Pakistan, Bangladesh, and even Nepal – have started pulling away, wary of its ideological shift and seeing it as a destabilizing force rather than a responsible regional leader. Compounding these issues is India’s overcommitment to an unsustainable arms race. The EU’s push to ramp up India’s defense capabilities, including cooperation on emerging technologies and military-industrial ties, risks dragging the region further into militarization. While intended as a counterweight to China, this move will likely end up pushing South Asia deeper into an arms spiral. India has piled up military expenditures, attempting to hold off China while keeping Pakistan in check. Yet, it now finds itself stretched too thin – unable to fend off Chinese incursions along its northern border while struggling to keep up its strategic coherence elsewhere. Bangladesh’s diplomatic recalibration, Sri Lanka’s growing economic ties with China, and Pakistan’s hardened strategic posture all point to a shifting regional balance that New Delhi can no longer dictate through military posturing alone. If India keeps clinging to past mistakes – weaponising water, stirring up hyper-nationalism, and throwing itself into military brinkmanship instead of prioritizing regional cooperation – it won’t just push itself over the edge; it will drag the entire region down with it. Water scarcity, already a flashpoint, could boil over into a full-blown geopolitical crisis if India continues messing around with river flows. This would deepen Pakistan’s vulnerabilities, ratchet up border tensions, and invite retaliatory responses. At the same time, worsening ecological conditions across South Asia would drive mass displacements, set off resource conflicts, and spark insurgencies – turning internal cracks into regional flashpoints. The economic dimension of India’s missteps is equally dangerous. Its once-hyped growth narrative is running out of steam, with foreign investment slowing, manufacturing stagnating, and inequality widening. If this downward spiral picks up speed, India’s social fabric could unravel further, making it increasingly difficult to govern. A politically unstable India would, in turn, break down regional trade, throw supply chains into disarray, and pull neighbouring economies down with it. The only viable path forward is for India to shake off its past miscalculations and step up as a regional stabilizer. And the most effective way to do this is by leading sustainable water management initiatives that benefit the entire region. First, India must reach out to Pakistan for serious discussions on updating the Indus Waters Treaty. Instead of using its upstream advantage as a bargaining chip, India should push forward cooperative water-sharing mechanisms that prioritize ecological sustainability. Joint water conservation projects, real-time data sharing, and coordinated reservoir management could head off future crises and rebuild trust between the two countries. A stable Pakistan, rather than a weakened and embittered one, would serve India’s long-term interests far better. Second, India must follow through on similar overtures to Bangladesh, which has long put up with India’s unilateral control over transboundary rivers. By working together on water management strategies and pouring resources into regional irrigation projects, India could turn water from a source of tension into a foundation for cooperation. Given Bangladesh’s growing strategic significance, New Delhi cannot afford to brush Dhaka aside. Third, India must rethink its approach to China by opting for water security dialogue rather than letting confrontations spiral out of control. The Brahmaputra, a crucial water source for India’s northeast, originates in Tibet, where China’s dam-building projects have rung alarm bells. Instead of hitting back with hostility, India should lay down a joint framework that ensures sustainable water flow, prevents ecological damage, and facilitates disaster response cooperation. If New Delhi takes the lead in setting up a multilateral water governance mechanism, it could not only shore up its own water security but also tone down broader tensions with Beijing. India is at a defining moment. It can either stick with its old, failed strategies – hoarding water, stoking nationalism, and stretching itself too thin militarily – or it can come to terms with the limits of unilateralism and embrace regional cooperation. While the EU may see India as a partner in countering China, pumping up its military without addressing its internal and regional contradictions will only stir up more trouble. Leading the way in sustainable water management would not only put its own future on stable ground but also defuse tensions across South Asia. The writer is an Islamabad-based veteran journalist and an independent researcher. He can be reached on Twitter @riazmissen