The elections to install a government of people’s choice is one facet of democracy. The process occurs in over 100 countries after every four or five years depending upon the system in vogue. However, the elections that matter the most or are viewed more eagerly is that of the President of the United States which occurs every four years.
The US election history is unique in many ways. Even though the people directly vote for the President and Vice President, he or she does not get elected on the popular vote. The US election system has an Electoral College, and the number of seats allocated to each state is based on the population of the respective state. Whichever candidate wins the state, carries all the electoral votes of the state. There are a total of 538 electors selected from different states, and the candidate who secures the figure of 270, qualifies to become the President of the US.
Without going into a tedious process of nominations and then the elections, I will come straight to the 2024 US Election for which the general voting will take place on 5th November, whereas the winner will take the oath of office on 20th January 2025.
This year’s elections in the US are unique in the sense that a sitting Vice President Kamal Harris has been nominated by the Democrats without going through the Primaries and Caucuses, which has been a practice of choosing a candidate by the registered party members across all states and territories. This happened due to an unexpected dropout of the incumbent President Biden, presumably due to his poor health.
Kamala’s nominations have added spice to Democrat’s campaign.
Just for the record, soon after the 2020 elections in which President Biden was elected, I had predicted that he would not be able to complete his term or he would not seek reelection. My assessment was based on his health status at the time of those elections as well. However, Biden’s dropping out of the race is not entirely due to his poor health but also due to his inability to face a strong challenge from former President Donald Trump, whom he was able to oust from the presidency four years ago.
Kamala’s nominations have added spice to Democrat’s campaign which was heading nowhere when Biden was in the reace after winning the primaries. However, in my opinion, it may not be sustainable due to the Biden Administration’s performance over the last 42 months. Kamala has, so far, tried successfully to dissociate herself from the failures of the Biden Administration in which she was his deputy. I am not sure if the Americans will buy that for long, because, the challenger Trump, in his last debate, has pointed out this aspect forcefully and that particular part of the debate has gone viral on social media.
Moreover, the temporary success of Kamala in the debate is now being exposed by other media houses that the debate was between one versus three (Trump versus Kamala and two anchor persons of ABC Networks). There are also allegations that sample questions were already passed on to Kamala Campaign and she was constantly guided through a smart headphone installed in her earrings. However, these allegations will need further investigations before Kamala suffers a loss of trust on these allegations.
Perhaps, the most interesting thing in this year’s elections will be to view the record of performance of each contestant in office. For instance, Trump would be assessed for his performance as the President of the US four years ago, whereas Kamala would be evaluated as the incumbent Vice President. Trump may not have been the most successful President since the end of the Cold War, but Kamala is certainly the Vice President of the weakest Presidency in US history over the same period.
Biden’s presidency of which Kamala remains his deputy, has failed to stop Russia from invading Ukraine, failed to stop Netanyahu from genocidal acts in Gaza, failed to slow down China’s rise and the process of de-dollarization. It will not be easy for Kamala to dissociate herself from the failures of Biden because Trump’s campaign is based on her performance and not the rhetorics alone. Moreover, Trump’s new promises on tax cuts on overtime, border control, and immigrants, are expected to appeal to the voters. Moreover, the people do not see Trump as a politician but a real person, who is anti-war and promises to end the Ukraine war in just one day after assuming office. Trump’s call on the European allies to pay more for their security under the banner of NATO is also well known.
In my opinion, this year’s elections will be very important for the future of the international system and the US dominance or otherwise in global affairs. Kamala’s coming to power will, perhaps expedite the process of the US’ decline as a sole superpower. However, it is to be decided by the Americans alone.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”