To Lam, named Vietnam’s top leader on Saturday, is a powerful former public security minister who has been swiftly elevated by a corruption crackdown that swept away other contenders.
He was confirmed as general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam after the death of his predecessor Nguyen Phu Trong, Vietnam’s most powerful leader in decades. In his first remarks as general secretary, Lam said his promotion was the result of “an urgent need to ensure the leadership of the party”.
Lam, 67, has spent his entire career in the secretive ministry of public security and has been jockeying for influence for some time, according to analysts.
In May, he became president — a largely ceremonial role — after his predecessor resigned as part of a vast anti-graft purge.
Thousands of people — including top officials and senior business leaders — have been caught up in the Southeast Asian country’s “blazing furnace” crackdown on graft.
Lam’s elevation comes as little surprise to analysts and he is not expected to vastly shift the country’s existing policies.
But it marks a “total victory” for Lam, said Benoit de Treglode, research director at the Institute for Strategic Research at France’s military academy in Paris. “He is an extremely strong statesman, supported by a ministry at the heart of the Vietnamese political project,” he said.
“We will witness a personalisation of power around him, which will lead to political stability” and a movement towards “continuity, and not rupture”.
Vietnam’s leadership structure gives the party’s secretary general most power, with the president occupying a largely ceremonial role that includes meeting foreign counterparts. The leadership also includes the prime minister and the head of the National Assembly.
It was unclear whether Lam will carry out his role as president simultaneously or whether he will step down. The country’s politburo is central to steering policy and analysts say the new leadership is unlikely to break with existing domestic and foreign priorities. “Major changes to Vietnam’s economic and foreign policy should not be expected,” wrote Le Hong Hiep and Nguyen Khac Giang, analysts at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute think tank.
“Ultimately, preserving the Party’s rule will be the new leader’s main priority, much like it was for Trong,” they wrote in an analysis last month.
– ‘Last man standing’ –
Lam was born in 1957 in Hung Yen, then part of communist North Vietnam, and entered the ministry of public security after graduating from the police academy. He has spent his whole career within the secretive ministry, which deals with the monitoring of dissent and surveillance of activists in the authoritarian state.
Rights groups say the government has in recent years stepped up a crackdown on civil society groups.
Lam has used the anti-graft drive to outmanoeuvre his rivals for power, according to Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington.
He weaponised anti-corruption investigations to “systematically take down rivals in the politburo who were eligible to become general secretary,” he told AFP earlier this year.
Other than Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, “that leaves To Lam as the last man standing”. Lam’s allies have moved into key positions, including as his replacement at the head of the police. The anti-corruption drive has proved popular with the public. But analysts warn the turmoil may threaten the country’s reputation for stability, which has helped it build a highly successful export-driven manufacturing economy, making products for major global brands.