Carrots and Sticks

Author: Aliya Anjum

Indian PM Modi recently visited the US and the optics were very good. POTUS Biden hosted a state dinner for Modi and the latter got the rare opportunity to address the Joint session of the American Congress for the second time. Only Nelson Mandela and Winston Churchill previously held this rare honour.

Sanjay Mehrotra, the Indian-American CEO of Micron, was photographed shaking hands with the Indian PM at the White House. Modi invited Micron to India for semiconductor manufacturing. In 2021, the Indian semiconductor market reached a valuation of USD 27.2 billion. However, India does not possess semiconductor manufacturing capability, which is a highly specialized, intricate, and costly undertaking. It requires sophisticated technology, which India does not possess. Since 2001, the US has patronized India and given it a technology boost to develop India as a counterweight to China.

This US-India cooperation has reached the next level with the US jet engine technology being shared with India through an MOU signed between General Electric (GE) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). Only the US, Russia, the UK and France possess jet engine technology. India attempted to develop its jet engine with the Kaveri engine project in 1989. However, India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) failed to develop an engine with thrust and power adequate to meet the Indian Air Force’s operational needs. The indigenously developed Indian fighter jet, Teja, was hence fitted with a GE engine.

GE will share with India the know-how to build an F414 engine, which is an upgrade of Teja’s current F404 engine.

Let’s examine the rationale behind this unprecedented move by the US.

The not-so-mighty Indian military suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) in 2019. The Indian Air Force (IAF) made false claims of shooting down a Pakistani F-16 even as intact missiles were found in the wreckage of its downed fighter jet. The only flying object the IAF fatally struck with a missile, was its own Mi-17 helicopter.

If Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Brazil join forces to create a common currency, western financial dominance would end.

In 2019, Wing Commander Abhinandan was captured after his Mig21 was shot down. Termed the “flying coffin” and “the widowmaker,” this fighter jet was the mainstay of the IAF till the Russia-Ukraine war yielded an unexpected boon for India. In July 2022, France delivered 36 of its Rafale jets to India after a delay of six years. However, in 2022 alone, Rafale jets suffered two mid-air collision accidents, raising concerns about its performance. India showcased its locally made Teja in every international air show but found no buyers. Meanwhile, Pakistan sold its JF17 to Nigeria – after the Pakistani jet’s successful strike against the IAF in 2019.

In early 2023, a prominent news anchor on the Indian Wion channel was seen panicking over China developing a stealth fighter jet. Seeing this strategic weakness of India, the US has dangled the most appetizing carrot before India – a fighter jet engine and semiconductor technology. The F404/414 jet engines have been sold to the air forces of Australia, Canada, Finland, Kuwait, Malaysia, Spain, Switzerland, Singapore, Sweden, Korea, Hungary, India and the Czech Republic.

The US Navy and Marine Corps employ the F414 engine in the F/A-18 Hornets of the US Navy and Marine Corps. The same engine was also used in the now-retired USAF’s F-117 Stealth Fighter.

The F-22 Raptor and the F-35 are the most powerful US fighter jets in the USAF’s arsenal right now. F-35’s top-tier technology has been shared with Israel.

The US Navy’s F/A-18 Hornet fitted with an F414 engine ranks lower in power, speed, range, ceiling and rate of climb than the F-16c Block 50 fitted with an F-110 engine. However, the F414 is still a very effective fighter jet engine.

This begs the question as to why the US dangled such a juicy carrot before India. The answer lies in BRICS currency plans. Brazil, India, Russia, China and South Africa formed BRICS and Prince Muhammad Bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has plans to join BRICS, after signing important trade agreements with China. BRICS plan to launch a currency in a bid to displace the US Dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

To understand why this is such a cause of concern for the US and the West at large, we have to understand that the Western banking system is the primary instrument of international dominance and control. Any threat to this dominance is immediately neutralized, as was done in Libya.

Colonel Qaddafi unified the divided African continent controlled by various Western powers, China and others. In 2004, a 53-nation pan-African Parliament laid plans for the African Economic Community – with a single gold currency by 2023. Qaddafi’s plan for an independent gold currency in Africa aimed to free the continent from economic bondage under the US Dollar, the IMF and the French African franc. This move would have ended colonial exploitation in the continent. Libya and Qaddafi were destroyed by the US-led NATO to neutralize the threat to the US, France and the greater Western world.

BRICS currency plans are a different story. The combined military might of Russia and China is formidable. However, Russia has already been militarily engaged by NATO countries and the US is sabre-rattling with China. In this scenario, India becomes an important player as it can potentially tip the scales either way. India has hence been recruited in QUAD with Australia and Japan but that did not prove to be a sufficient measure, as India is buying oil from Russia in Indian Rupees and its old and strong relationship with Russia is proving to be solid. It was PM Jawahar Laal Nehru who had officially chosen to join the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) but India has historically been in the Soviet-Russian sphere during and after the cold war.

If Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Brazil join forces to create a common currency, western financial dominance would end. The US and its Western allies would do everything in their power to prevent this from happening. This is why a stick followed the carrot.

The stick was wielded by former POTUS Barack Obama a day after Modi departed from India. During an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Obama said: “By the way, if I had a conversation with Prime Minister Modi, who I know well, part of my argument would be that if you do not protect the rights of ethnic minorities in India, then there is a strong possibility that India, at some point, starts pulling apart.” The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) for the fourth year in a row called on the US Department of State to designate India as a “country of particular concern.” More importantly, USCIRF advocated placing various sanctions on India.

The US has dangled both a carrot and a stick hence. US-India trade reached USD 120 billion in 2022. When lucrative technology deals are in the offing, sanctions would deliver a deadly blow to the Indian economy which has prospered in the last two decades, thanks to US patronage. In all fairness, the US would rightfully expect India not to bite the hand that feeds it.

The message is loud and clear: Abandon any currency plans with BRICS and toe the line of the US and you would be rewarded with a technological bounty. If you do so, we would turn a blind eye to the imminent Indian Muslim genocide. However, if you fail to comply, the US and NATO could use the good old trope of sanctions to penalize human rights violations. US sanctions on Cuba, North Korea and Iran are a case in point to see what is in store for sanctioned nations.

The writer is an independent researcher, author and columnist. She can be reached at aliya1924@gmail.com

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