An important, if not determining factor, in the US obsession with Iran is the role Israel and the powerful Jewish lobby plays in the formulation of its foreign and strategic policies in the region, with Iran perceived as a serious threat. Iran has been dismissive of Israel and a strong proponent of the Palestinian cause. President Ahmadinejad has made provocative statements denying that the Holocaust ever happened. Similarly, he does not accept the legitimacy of the Israeli state, promising to eliminate it. Against this backdrop, Israel sees an existential threat from Iran’s nuclear programme and wants to bomb its nuclear plants to pre-empt it. Obviously, it would prefer the US to do this, as Iran is seen as a global threat. If not, it would like to have comprehensive US backing. Lately, the US and its allies have ratcheted up the pressure on Iran, following an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report pointing to ‘credible’ evidence suggesting Iran is working towards developing nuclear weapons. But this is nothing new because Iran has been accused of doing this for a number of years now, even though US intelligence suggested otherwise not so long ago. Indeed, there is no hard evidence that Iran is working to acquire a nuclear arsenal. But the IAEA report serves as a convenient excuse to launch another concerted campaign and impose another layer of sanctions on Iran. The upshot of the new sanctions is to put a total economic embargo on Iran by the US and its allies. At the same time, Iran is being told that the US is keeping all its options open to force it to forgo its nuclear programme, which obviously means that the US is not ruling out military means including, presumably, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time, Israel is letting it be known that it is studying plans to bomb Iranian nuclear plants. To emphasise the urgency of the situation, Israel’s defence minister, Ehud Barak, has reportedly said that his country has less than a year to act. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s credibility recently took a serious hit when a conversation between President Sarkozy of France and President Obama was picked up while talking about Netanyahu at the G-20 summit. During their tête-à-tête, when a mike was still on, Sarkozy said, “I cannot stand him. He is a liar.” To which Obama replied, “You are fed up with him? I have to deal with him every day.” Now the Israeli publicists are trying to make out an argument that Netanyahu’s image should not distract from the view that he is the authentic voice of his country on the question of the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel and the need for a pre-emptive strike. In a recent newspaper article David Landau, a former editor-in-chief of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, wrote, “Israel was created from the ashes of Auschwitz. Its primary mission is ‘never again’.” He added, “The world needs to recognise that Netanyahu authentically articulates that perspective and that reality.” But if Israel were to unilaterally bomb Iranian nuclear plants, it would not only face a massive Iranian counter-attack but is also likely to create a major crisis in the Middle East with Israel at the receiving end of it which might, for once, transcend the Shia-Sunni divide to face a common Israeli threat to the region. Landau does not under-rate the dangers of bombing Iran on its own. He reflects the calculation of many in Israel, including its government, when he writes, “Against all that [the dangers and consequences for Israel] is the calculation, carefully unspoken but present nevertheless, that a unilateral Israeli strike would trigger massive American intervention against Iran’s nuclear programme…because Washington would have an overwhelming interest in ‘finishing the job’ that Israel began.” Is Landau the medium to openly convey the message of his government? It certainly seems like when he finishes his article with a warning of sorts, “The bluffer [Netanyahu] is not bluffing. Let’s hope Obama, Sarkozy and the rest are hearing him loud and clear.” Even as this kind of drumbeating is going on, Iran’s detractors hope that, “The regime in Tehran is deeply unpopular and may yet implode.” That may be so but there is no better way to rally Iranians around the regime than when the country is in grave danger of facing a foreign attack. It is true that the clerical regime in Iran is beset with serious internal problems. The presidential elections in 2009, and the brutal crackdown on the opposition, dented the regime’s legitimacy. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s return to the presidency was very controversial, with some regarding it as a cruel farce. Having made it to the presidency a second time with the support of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ahmadinejad is not comfortable with the overriding political authority of his mentor. He seems keen to set up his own power base to challenge Khamenei. In this connection, an interesting article published in a recent issue of the New York Review of Books, written by an ‘anonymous’ Iran expert, is quite significant. It says the rupture between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad was provoked by “Esfandiyar Rahim Mashaei, President Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff and close advisor [the two of them are also related, with Mashaei’s daughter married to the president’s son].” Mashaei is ‘reputed to be in contact with the Twelfth Imam’ — a messianic figure believed to be in hiding since the tenth century. Ahmadinejad has resisted attempts by the Supreme Leader to have Mashaei removed, but his efforts to have him groomed as his successor seem doomed. Seeking to set up a higher political and religious authority than Khamenei in the person of Mashaei, as a medium with the Twelfth Imam, is like making the Supreme Leader irrelevant. It does not look like this will work because, for one, Mashaei, with some of the president’s other cronies, is involved in an embezzlement/banking scandal. And, second, Ahmadinejad’s regime has been quite incompetent in managing the country’s economy. Unemployment is high, inflation raging and Iran’s middles class is unhappy with the country’s state of affairs. And with a tighter western regime of sanctions, things are going to get worse for the people. However, any foreign attack on Iranian nuclear installations, and the consequent series of events, will become the glue that holds the country together under the existing regime. (Concluded) The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia. He can be reached at sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au