Predicting difficult times ahead, the World Bank sharply lowered Pakistan’s current growth forecast from two to 0.4 per cent, attributing the change to tighter economic conditions and limited fiscal space. Rising interest rates and uncertainty in financial markets have exerted downward pressure on the cash-strapped economy, with future economic prospects heavily dependent on structural reform. Since the advent of the pandemic, Pakistan has been lurching from one crisis to the next, echoing the cautionary tales of other developing economies like Sri Lanka. Inflation is at a 48-year high, battering local businesses and making costs of living increasingly manageable. Foreign currency reserves are barely enough to cover a month of imports. The bill for billions in flood damages continues to sting with many living without compensation for the losses they incurred, a dystopian warning to the world about the financial consequences of a climate catastrophe. Bond spreads are widening while the IMF deliberates whether to resume aid-the wait has been excruciating. In the meantime, dollar shortages continue to choke off growth. The World Bank’s projections assume that Pakistan will realize its deal with the IMF, but a $6.5 billion loan falls far short of what is needed to replenish the country’s depleted coffers. In fact, repeated delays in the IMF’s bailout program on top of its lingering political and economic turmoil, are likely to push the country straight towards a recession. In an attempt to seal the bailout, authorities have already raised taxes, cut energy subsidies and raised interest rates to a 25-year high to tamp down prices but larger structural issues continue to haunt us. The inability of successive governments to meet the IMF’s prescriptions and an overall lack of continuity in policies regardless of who is in power has made large lenders like the IMF reluctant to part with more funds. And they can’t be blamed for a crisis of our own making. But we still need help. Without foreign intervention, it is unlikely that Pakistan will make a full recovery. Loans from China are already underway, it is high time other advanced economies step up and open other financing avenues for Pakistan. *