World leaders recently gathered to take part in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) session in New York. Where every leader did raise the Syrian conflict and called for a diplomatic end to it, the UNGA also became a highlight event of the year because of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s meeting with his Indian counterpart, Manmohan Singh. The two premiers finally met on September 29 to discuss the future of Pakistan-India relations. Although the meeting ended without any constructive note, the two premiers did agree to reduce tensions at the Line of Control (LoC), which will be the first step towards building regional peace.
Although Prime Minister Sharif and Prime Minister Singh have accepted each other’s invitation to visit India and Pakistan respectively, it is yet to be seen when they do make their visit, which will be filled with expectations from both sides, to say the least.
It is interesting to note that during their meeting in New York, the two premiers did not discuss matters of importance such as foreign policy issues, bilateral trade, or joint development projects.
Prime Ministers Sharif and Singh met at a time when the two countries cannot deem their relations as ‘friendly’, following the multiple episodes of firing across the LoC. Moreover, Mr Sharif has repeatedly called for Pakistan and India to have relations akin to 1999. Prior to the meeting, Mr Sharif said that the Pakistani government wants to maintain strong relations with India at all fronts and that both governments will settle the Kashmir issue through a dialogue. Moreover, ahead of their meeting, Prime Minister Sharif said that heavy budgets have been allocated by both countries on defence, which, in different circumstances, could have been assigned to the social sector. What Mr Sharif said is true; it was the need of the hour for Pakistan and India to assign heavy budgets on defence, mainly because of the Kashmir issue, and the pervasive tensions over the LoC and Kargil.
In 1999, Prime Minister Sharif was serving in his second term as the premier when the then Indian Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee made his historic visit to Pakistan. If Mr Sharif wants Pakistan-India to enjoy 1999-like relations, then a swift diplomatic dialogue over key issues must begin at the earliest between Islamabad and New Delhi. Moreover, the political situation between Pakistan and India and in South Asia has drastically changed since 1999. The relations between Islamabad and Washington would also influence the future of Pakistan-India ties. Afghanistan is another major player in South Asia, which will determine India’s outlook towards Pakistan. If Prime Minister Sharif needs 1999-like relations, then he should begin by creating an effective foreign policy towards India.
The two countries are making efforts for a peaceful coexistence, and the business community is willing to reestablish commercial and industrial relations. However, with the Kashmir issue still looming over the two South Asian neighbours, it is imperative that the two governments first bring a diplomatic solution to the table. It is interesting to note that the meeting between Nawaz Sharif and Manmohan Singh, at the sidelines of the UNGA in New York, did not settle any issue but did break the ice that some thought had parted away the two governments. It was necessary to fill this communication gap to rebuild their mutual ties.
Moreover, after the meeting, the Indian Security Adviser, Shivshankar Menon said that the two countries have given their Directors General Military Operations (DGMOs) the task to recommend measures to restore ceasefire at the LoC. However, the two countries have yet to decide upon the schedule for the DGMOs meeting. Whenever this meeting takes place, it will set a strategy for Pakistan and India to reduce tension at the LoC and may bring Islamabad and New Delhi closer in resolving the dispute of Kashmir. What tactics the two governments will employ to settle the Kashmir issue, however, is yet to be seen.
Apart from the Kashmir issue, Prime Minister Singh urged his Pakistani counterpart to bring to justice the culprits of the Mumbai attack while Prime Minister Sharif discussed India’s interference in Balochistan. Although the discussions on Mumbai attacks and on Balochistan were of high intensity that could have given a bad taste to the meeting, it was evident that the two leaders chose to discuss Kashmir issue for it has been affecting both countries and destabilising peace in South Asia.
Furthermore, the Pakistani premier also stressed to resolve the disputes of Sir Creek and Siachen and that both Islamabad and New Delhi must comprehend the importance of reestablishing trade ties. However, after the recent LoC scuffle, both countries would first need to bolster their relations as peaceful neighbours before working on other issues. Prime Minister Sharif would also be willing to maintain ties with India ahead of the 2014 general elections. It is uncertain who will rule India then, as Rahul Gandhi, the Vice President of the Indian National Congress, may be chosen as party’s prime ministerial candidate. The other prime ministerial candidate is Narendra Damodardas Modi, who belongs to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and is the current Chief Minister of Gujrat. Moreover, if looking at Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s objective to create 1999-like Pakistan-India relations, a BJP government in 2014 would serve his purpose, because India did have a BJP Prime Minister in 1999. However, it is yet to be seen who emerges as the victor in the 2014 Indian general elections and what relations the new Indian premier will have with Islamabad.
The writer is a freelance columnist for various English dailies and writes on international relations with focus on South Asia. He tweets @omariftikhar