Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has completed his visit to Washington where he met US President Barack Obama, Vice-President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and other top officials. These interactions ran true to an already familiar script. Both sides essentially restated their known positions. To that extent, there were no surprises and certainly hopes of any breakthrough were almost non-existent. In their joint news conference and the joint statement issued at the end of the meeting with the US President, it became clearer what the dialogue covered. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, as anticipated, raised the issues of a cessation of drone strikes, improvement of relations with India, including a request to the US to help resolve Kashmir, Pakistan’s energy crisis, US investment in Pakistan and the Dr Aafia Siddiqui release conundrum. Obama on the other hand concentrated on punishment of the Mumbai attackers, restricting the activities of Jamaat-ud-Dawa and the release of Dr Shakil Afridi. Although these sets of demands seem to suggest both sides were talking ‘past’ each other, and even implicitly if not explicitly agreeing to disagree, what must not be lost sight of is the emerging context of the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan next year and the need therefore to reframe the long term relationship between Washington and Islamabad. In that respect, the interaction proved long on rhetoric and short, at least in terms of detail, on concrete outcomes. Both sides iterated their commitment to a long term mutually beneficial relationship, an aim that includes a solution for Afghanistan post-2014 that would not only be good for Afghanistan, according to Obama, but also ensure Pakistan would not suffer any adverse fallout in the long run. In other words, any lingering apprehensions in Islamabad regarding a repeat of the post-1989 ‘abandonment’ of Pakistan and the region may have been laid to rest. That may bring some modicum of comfort to Pakistan, but on the immediate issues, the results were mixed. On drones, for example, the US President made no commitment. It is another matter that Washington is far more sensitive now than in the past to the rising concern in Pakistan (and internationally) regarding the drone attacks and that in itself, combined with the impending withdrawal, may result in a dwindling incrementally of such attacks and their possible cessation after 2014. But even that is still far from a certainty, and no bets can be laid at this juncture. Ritual references by the US side to “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Pakistan will remain just that, diplomatese, until this becomes a reality on the ground. No ‘exchange’ of Aafia Siddiqui for Shakil Afridi appears imminent, nor is the US about to tread uninvited (in fact resisted) by India into the long-standing Kashmir quagmire. While the positive words expressing mutual bonhomie should not have too much read into them, it is also undeniable that Washington has released, and is striving to further release, long stalled military and civilian aid for Pakistan. There are also bright chances that US investment and help in overcoming Pakistan’s energy crisis are on the cards. The stalled Strategic Dialogue between the two sides is scheduled to restart in March 2014, led on the US side by John Kerry, widely perceived as a friend of Pakistan.
It may seem a cliché to argue that states have their own interests and no one should have any illusions that a free lunch is available. However, the nitty gritty of the present interaction and those to follow should not blind us to the long term implications and requirements, for both sides, of a continuing and hopefully more meaningful than in just the Afghanistan perspective, mutually beneficial relationship that helps Pakistan to determine and take strides towards the kind of state and society it wishes to emerge as in the 21st century. The US sees the benefit in a stable, prosperous, democratic, modern Pakistan that takes its due place in the sun. How far it is prepared, and will continue to be prepared, to advance that goal is and will be the space to keep an eye on.*