Political writing is what most op-ed writers do, and so do I. Often, I write about Pakistani politics, and sometimes about US politics, but rarely about the politics of what goes on between these two countries. Many years ago, when Barack Hussein Obama was elected president of the US, there was considerable optimism in the Muslim world that a grandson of a Muslim and the foster son of another Muslim would be much more responsive towards the needs and aspirations of Muslims all over the world. At least, in the early years of the Obama presidency, there seemed to be some evidence of such a tendency.
Soon after Obama took over as president, somebody asked me why Obama seemed to single out Pakistan as the one Muslim country that he could find no soft corner for, my answer was that Pakistan was Obama’s ‘Sister Souljah’. Sister Souljah is an African American activist, writer and recording artist. In 1992, she made some rather ‘inflammatory’ remarks about ‘white’ Americans. Bill Clinton was campaigning for the US presidency at that time, and was expected to get most of the African American votes. However, he chose to publicly disagree with the remarks made by Sister Souljah to prove the point that even though he sympathised with the problems faced by African Americans, he was not a ‘prisoner’ to all African American points of view.
When Obama first ran for president, one of the ‘charges’ against him was that he was a secret Muslim. Even today one in six Americans believes that Obama is really a Muslim. Nothing wrong with that if he is, but if he says he is not, then he should be taken at his word. However, in terms of politics, Obama had to prove that he was not going to be ‘pro-Muslim’ (think Israel-Palestine) in his foreign policy. And to prove his willingness to go after a Muslim country if he had to, even as a candidate, Obama supported drone strikes in Pakistan. And during his first four years as president he drone attacked the ‘bejeezus’ out of Pakistan. Interestingly, once he was re-elected, the number of drone attacks on Pakistan has dwindled significantly.
All those that support the drone attacks find good reasons for escalating the drone attacks on Pakistani territory, and they are not entirely wrong, but I have a sneaky suspicion that all along, Pakistan was Obama’s Sister Souljah, and the drone attacks were, what is now referred to in US politics, as a ‘Sister Souljah moment’. So if I am correct in my assessment, then Obama, now that he is re-elected, no longer needs to beat up on Pakistan for any ‘political’ reasons. And of course, he now needs Pakistan to facilitate the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, for a change today, the US needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs the US, at least for the next couple of years.
Here I must admit that Mian Nawaz Sharif might be a good businessman and an even better retail politician, but he is not a ‘geo-strategic’ thinker. So what did Mian Sahib ask for during his recent visit to the US? First, of course, is that the drone strikes on Pakistani territory should be stopped. The second thing, I am sure he asked for is the release of Afia Siddiqui. Obama could accept that in return for the release of Dr Shakil Afridi (an exchange most likely). And then Mian Sahib surely asked for ‘better trade and more money’. But Obama does not control money or trade. All that is controlled by the US Congress, which, at present, is at least in part run by Obama’s opponents in the Republican Party. So, the only money Mian Sahib will get is the money previously agreed to by the US and the goodies promised for General Pervez Kayani’s boys.
The question then is was anything ‘new’ decided at the meeting between Obama and Mian Sahib? These meetings are almost always for ‘show and tell’, and the real decisions have already been made in talks at a lower level. As was reported even before the White House meeting, the US released some previously promised ‘support’ funds, and asked Congress to release some of the money owed to Pakistan. That was primarily what Pakistan gets, period. If anything else of any importance was decided, it is unlikely that we will know about it any time soon.
But there is one thing that just might have been decided. If Mian Sahib played his cards properly it is possible that he was able to convince the US to stop the drone attacks at least until Pakistan can get the ‘Taliban’ to start talking peace. If such a deal was struck, the US, I am sure, extracted a time limit in return. Essentially, the US wants to make sure that Pakistan does not ‘export’ terrorism or provide sanctuaries to anti-US groups active in Afghanistan during the US drawdown. Protestations to the contrary are not enough and the US will like to see some concrete steps. For the future, the US will expect Pakistan to facilitate exit of US ‘materiel’ from Afghanistan, and for Pakistan to adhere to a non-interference policy in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal. I am sure Mian Sahib agreed, but will he be able to make it happen remains to be seen.
Even if we ignore conspiracy theories about ‘hidden hands’ and a new ‘Great Game’, Mian Sahib will first have to put his own economic house in order, control violence perpetrated by terrorist groups, and at the same time, make sure that the boys in khaki ‘toe the line’ before he can worry about foreign policy. The question is whether Mian Sahib has the appropriate advice and the willingness to accept such advice that can enable Pakistan to develop a coherent foreign policy to deal with our neighbours and countries like the US, Russia and China.
Political writing is what most op-ed writers do, and so do I. Often, I write about Pakistani politics, and sometimes about US politics, but rarely about the politics of what goes on between these two countries. Many years ago, when Barack Hussein Obama was elected president of the US, there was considerable optimism in the Muslim world that a grandson of a Muslim and the foster son of another Muslim would be much more responsive towards the needs and aspirations of Muslims all over the world. At least, in the early years of the Obama presidency, there seemed to be some evidence of such a tendency.
Soon after Obama took over as president, somebody asked me why Obama seemed to single out Pakistan as the one Muslim country that he could find no soft corner for, my answer was that Pakistan was Obama’s ‘Sister Souljah’. Sister Souljah is an African American activist, writer and recording artist. In 1992, she made some rather ‘inflammatory’ remarks about ‘white’ Americans. Bill Clinton was campaigning for the US presidency at that time, and was expected to get most of the African American votes. However, he chose to publicly disagree with the remarks made by Sister Souljah to prove the point that even though he sympathised with the problems faced by African Americans, he was not a ‘prisoner’ to all African American points of view.
When Obama first ran for president, one of the ‘charges’ against him was that he was a secret Muslim. Even today one in six Americans believes that Obama is really a Muslim. Nothing wrong with that if he is, but if he says he is not, then he should be taken at his word. However, in terms of politics, Obama had to prove that he was not going to be ‘pro-Muslim’ (think Israel-Palestine) in his foreign policy. And to prove his willingness to go after a Muslim country if he had to, even as a candidate, Obama supported drone strikes in Pakistan. And during his first four years as president he drone attacked the ‘bejeezus’ out of Pakistan. Interestingly, once he was re-elected, the number of drone attacks on Pakistan has dwindled significantly.
All those that support the drone attacks find good reasons for escalating the drone attacks on Pakistani territory, and they are not entirely wrong, but I have a sneaky suspicion that all along, Pakistan was Obama’s Sister Souljah, and the drone attacks were, what is now referred to in US politics, as a ‘Sister Souljah moment’. So if I am correct in my assessment, then Obama, now that he is re-elected, no longer needs to beat up on Pakistan for any ‘political’ reasons. And of course, he now needs Pakistan to facilitate the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, for a change today, the US needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs the US, at least for the next couple of years.
Here I must admit that Mian Nawaz Sharif might be a good businessman and an even better retail politician, but he is not a ‘geo-strategic’ thinker. So what did Mian Sahib ask for during his recent visit to the US? First, of course, is that the drone strikes on Pakistani territory should be stopped. The second thing, I am sure he asked for is the release of Afia Siddiqui. Obama could accept that in return for the release of Dr Shakil Afridi (an exchange most likely). And then Mian Sahib surely asked for ‘better trade and more money’. But Obama does not control money or trade. All that is controlled by the US Congress, which, at present, is at least in part run by Obama’s opponents in the Republican Party. So, the only money Mian Sahib will get is the money previously agreed to by the US and the goodies promised for General Pervez Kayani’s boys.
The question then is was anything ‘new’ decided at the meeting between Obama and Mian Sahib? These meetings are almost always for ‘show and tell’, and the real decisi