Daily Times

Writing too often about Pakistan and its crises is like overdosing on rich and highly spiced food. Many years ago, when I was much younger, having a six-course meal was often the done thing. Now, getting through a three-course meal is hard work. And if I plan to have dessert I have to skip the soup and the salad. This perhaps is the reason why it is hard for me to keep on writing week after week about how bad things are in Pakistan. It would be like eating mutton karahi and brain masala every day!

So, the column I wrote last week about democracy in Pakistan compared to that in the US can be considered an ‘intermezzo’, or a palate cleanser — sort of like a light sorbet in between a couple of heavily ‘sauced’ dishes. Also, I am quite sure that very few people in Pakistan are concerned about democracy right now. At this time, most of them are entirely consumed by matters eschatological and culinary.

In a previous column, ‘Some comic relief please’ (Daily Times, June 14, 2014), I said that nothing of any political significance can happen in Pakistan until the end of winter and definitely not during the month of fasting, barring I suppose a ‘black swan’ event. And I laid out my perfectly reasonable reasons for that point of view. Yet, talking heads and op-ed writers are full of dire predictions about an impending demise of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government. Personally, I am quite sure that neither an ‘extra-constitutional’ change nor a ‘revolution’ is in the offing. The PML-N government is going to be around for a while, its repeated attempts at self-destruction notwithstanding.

Revolutions rarely lead to what the revolutionaries want. Even if we ignore the recent sad ‘Arab Spring’, in our own history there were two major public agitations that forced a change in government. The first, 45 years ago, was against Ayub Khan. That led not to democracy but to General Yahya Khan and his martial law. How that ended is without doubt the saddest chapter in the history of Pakistan. Eight years later we had the movement against Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, which of course brought us General Ziaul Haq. Enough said.

The more immediate question is why all this talk of change at this time. The simple reason is that Mian Nawaz Sharif, the ‘mandatee’ (not to be confused with a manatee), has acted as if he and his ‘talented’ brother are the lords and masters of all that they survey. The two of them do not seem to understand that Pakistan extends a bit beyond their palaces in Raiwind and that building more roads does not provide electricity, healthcare, education or food for the ordinary people of this country. Frankly, the PML-N won the 2013 election especially in Punjab on a single issue and that was of load shedding.

Every month that excessive load shedding goes on even after the price of electricity has doubled makes the PML-N’s mandate more precarious. Promises that ‘tomorrow’ will be better will not work. People want action about this issue right now. Also, ‘Sharif the younger’ cannot blame former president Asif Ali Zardari anymore, so either he has to blame ‘Sharif the elder’ or else, as they say, ‘zip up’ about load shedding. In winter, even if load shedding gets a little better, there will be ‘gas shedding’. What should one do? Use a light when their stove does not work and you cannot cook a meal for your family?

These are not reasons enough for a revolution. Even if they were, the extremely learned Allama from Canada or the Oxbridge Khan from Lahore cannot really initiate and maintain anything resembling a revolution. So, no revolutions coming our way any time soon and thank heavens for that! Personally, I would like to see the Mian brothers drag it out a big longer. But then we have a general with a moustache in the background.

As I have said previously, only generals with moustaches have ever thrown out a civilian government, and that civilian government has always been headed by a prime minister (or president) without a moustache. General Ayub Khan threw out Prime Minister Sir Feroz Khan Noon and then President Iskander Mirza. General Ziaul Haq replaced and killed Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. General Musharraf replaced and exiled Nawaz Sharif. On the other hand, the clean-shaven General Kayani left Zardari alone for five years even though people expected Kayani to boot him out any day. What happens now between the moustachioed General Raheel Sharif and the latest version of Nawaz Sharif remains to be seen.

But then, at this time, the army is already responsible for the ‘security’ of our airports, much of our cities and evidently even that of the Sharifs. The triple one brigade that once was infamous for spreading out and controlling the capital in case of a coup already controls the capital! Essentially, all that is left is a decision by the general about when or if he actually wants to take over everything.

The important variable is whether the present army action in North Waziristan is a ‘real’ success, and how well the present tragedy of the internally displaced persons plays out. If it all works out then the army will come out much more popular than it is today and its leader will also be riding a wave of unprecedented popularity. Can Caesar then resist the temptation to ‘cross the Rubicon’? If that even seems remotely possible, Nawaz Sharif and his penchant for firing generals will probably kick in. We all know how that sort of a confrontation ended the last time.

There is however one other variable that should be considered. I was told by an acute observer of Pakistani politics some time ago that once a government orders the police or the army to fire on unarmed civilians in Lahore, that government will not last the year.

The writer has practiced and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com