Daily Times

Since detonating its first nuclear devices in May 1998, Pakistan has outpaced every other country in the production of nuclear warheads. It is anticipated that Pakistan will surpass the UK, China and France in 2020 to acquire the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. This is all happening at a time when the world is stepping back from the nuclear arms race and the US and Russia, holding first and second position respectively, are contemplating destroying their nuclear arsenals.

Pakistan has a long history of aspiring to become a nuclear state since the times of Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in the mid-1970s and was suspected of acquiring nuclear capability as early as 1983. However, Pakistan conducted its first nuclear tests as a reaction to the ones conducted by India in May 1998. Pakistan conducted its nuclear tests at multiple sites in the Koh-i-Kambaran massif of the Ras Koh Range (28° 47’ N, 64° 56’ E) located in the Chaghai district of Balochistan province. The Ras Koh Range is part of the Chaghai arc that provides a rain shadow to the huge Kandahar desert across the border in Afghanistan.

The Ras Koh Range is characterised by scanty precipitation and the immediate vicinity of the test site is a dry desert with a sparse, mostly nomadic population. However, the Chaghai district has an estimated population of 410,000 people (82 percent living in the rural areas), under direct threat from the fallout of the nuclear test sites. Rainfall invariably results in flash floods as the surface rocks consist of layers of low-porosity granites and limestone. In this way, contaminants are carried in all directions from the test site. That is a problem in an area where radiation levels are unknown and locals have been misdiagnosed with untreated diseases. Because of the prevailing security situation in Balochistan, it is not safe for independent researchers and experts to travel in the affected areas. Despite numerous attempts, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, which oversees the nuclear sites, cannot be reached for comment.

The environmental effects of the tests are numerous. Geologists believe that the tests have not only caused a decline in ground water but have also contaminated both surface and ground waters. Consequently, the contaminated water is not suitable for human consumption or even farming and ranching. Global climate change, resulting in water scarcity, has already plagued the entire region. Open-pit metal mining at the nearby Saindak/Reko Diq mining field is an additional factor to pollute the environment.

Radiation-related diseases normally do not appear right after exposure. It is estimated that the onset of radiation-related diseases will begin in four to five years after the Fukushima reactor disaster in 2012. Though radiation and exposure levels are far below those of Fukushima or Chernobyl, still an effort should have been made to assess the situation after the May 1998 blasts in Balochistan. Empirical evidence suggests exposure to radiation in Chaghai district as the tests were conducted without prior warning to the residents due to it being a clandestine operation. The residents came to know about the nuclear tests after seeing footage on state-run television.

There have been unconfirmed reports of adverse health effects in Chaghai district and the surrounding areas. A disproportionally large number of people are suffering from skin diseases and damage to the thyroid glands. The symptoms have been spreading due to lack of treatment facilities in the affected areas. All these claims will remain speculative until independent researchers are granted access to the affected areas and extensive air, soil, water and rock samples are tested for possible radiation effects. Since people will continue to suffer in the area, it is very important to allow independent and random environmental tests. The US and the international community must come forward and contribute in this regard.

The poverty-stricken, violence-hit and less fortunate residents of underdeveloped Balochistan received another blow in the form of the fallout from nuclear device testing. Balochistan, being the largest province of Pakistan in size, has received the least attention from Islamabad. Aside from radiation effects, flash floods, untreated diseases, ethnic and sectarian violence, an extreme sense of alienation is also hitting the locals, leading to further chaos in the province.

Pakistan maintains nuclear enrichment and production facilities at Dera Ghazi Khan, Khushab and Kahuta, all located a short distance from the capital of Islamabad. A preliminary analysis of satellite imagery indicates robust developmental work on two additional plutonium production reactors is underway at Khushab and will soon join the national network to produce more weapons grade plutonium.

The cost of maintaining these facilities is enormous for a country where 58.7 percent of the people live below the poverty line and most do not have access to clean water, sanitation and primary healthcare and education. Out of the seven nuclear nations, Pakistan is the only one besides India that has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Dr A Q Khan, the chief architect of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, is widely known to have links with nuclear black market dealers and was pardoned by the government of Pakistan for his alleged involvement in a nuclear smuggling ring. Pakistan’s insistence on maintaining and enlarging its nuclear stockpiles comes at a cost. The country is being increasingly alienated internationally and the economy is becoming further dependent on international aid. For how long will the international community support a failing state?

Pakistan’s symbiotic relationship with Washington vis-à-vis military cooperation has largely worked in favour of Islamabad. The relationship is at best delusional as Pakistan has taken full advantage of the military assistance flowing unabated from Washington since 1979 when the anti-Soviet Afghan war began. While Washington was looking the other way, Pakistan’s nuclear programme went ahead full throttle, so much so that it is now a major issue for regional stability in South Asia. Washington must realise that giving Pakistan a free pass on its nuclear assets will have grave consequences should the devices fall into the wrong hands, for which there is no dearth as jihadi narratives are getting further traction in South Asia and the Middle East.

The best course of action for Pakistan would be to sign the NPT and move towards non-renewable energy resources, chiefly wind and solar. The country is located in a zone where it can collect maximum solar radiation and wind power. Also, Pakistan must improve the water management system to maximise its hydropower. Energy independence is the key to Pakistan’s stability.

The writer is a geo-political professional at University of Maryland and author of the book Afghanistan: From Cold War to Gold War. He tweets @asimusafzai