Daily Times

Uncertainty and chaos are increasing as we approach the date for the “azaadi (independence) march” of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on August 14. Just when he has become clear about his agenda, it is unclear what game plan Imran Khan has for the day. Even more unclear is how the government intends to handle the whole event. Whichever way events turn out, the next few days are bound to be the most critical days of Pakistan’s political history. That the next few days are critical, everyone realises. However, in an extremely polarised Pakistan and amid the ratings-driven media comprising not so astute reporters and analysts, what is missing is a clear perspective.
As for the prime demands by Imran Khan and his complaints, none can disagree with them. That there were doubts about the electoral process and they should be probed and rectified to ensure fairer elections is something one can hardly dispute. Also correct is the assertion that if doubts remain about the electoral process, people will lose faith in the process and thus violent revolutions will remain the only way to topple the government. In hindsight, his strategy to give the government and the courts one full year to audit the electoral results of four constituencies also shows maturity.
It can, however, be debated whether Imran has exhausted all avenues to redress his complaints before turning to street agitation. But, then again, Imran is a politician and his calculations will be based on political gains and losses. And so one needs to look at what is driving Imran’s political calculations. Imran believes he had the support of the majority in Punjab, especially northern and central Punjab even during the elections of 2013. Since then, thanks to the PML-N’s performance in government, the worsening economic conditions and ever-worsening power crisis, his stock has only risen in Punjab. Therefore, he is confident about winning Punjab in the event of a snap election. At the same time, he feels that the situation on the ground is not unfavourable for him in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. So, with Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa under his belt, he thinks he has a good chance of forming a government in the event of flash elections.
Of course, his desire will not be enough to get mid-term elections. And this is where Nawaz’s government came in handy in providing him with the opportunity to go in for the kill. First and foremost, Nawaz Sharif entered into a mindless conflict with the army and establishment on issues ranging from an operation against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to his Afghanistan and India policy, to Pervez Musharraf. If that were not enough, his opaque economic and privatisation policies raised alarm bells across powerful circles within and outside the country. And then there was this fear that the Sharifs have created an oligarchy built on personal loyalty that spans from the bureaucracy to the judiciary and the media. All these made many powerful quarters in the security, administration, polity, diplomatic and business community very jittery about Sharif’s way of governance. The final straw was the Hamid Mir episode and the government’s handling of it. It was there that Khan sensed his opportunity. He slowly started building the tempo of an all-out agitation. The Sharifs’ response was a mix of arrogance and panic. Entering the fray was Tahirul Qadri and that led to the unfortunate incident in Model Town.
In civilised democracies, even governments with a legitimate mandate lose their mandate to govern over incidents like the Model Town fiasco. That 14 civilians were killed by police brutality in what appears to be a political clash is brutal even by Pakistani standards. Post-Model Town, it became inevitable that the parties looking to topple the government would go all the way. And so the PTI/PAT/PML-Q and other anti-Nawaz forces are pushing it to the brink now and, in the process, the government looks clueless and as if it is in a state of panic. Going by their track record, there is a fear that the Sharifs will try to deal with the agitation heavy-handedly and this will push things to the brink. The Sharifs in their calculations are probably thinking that, amidst the Taliban insurgency, it will be impossible for the army to topple them, if it has a desire to do so.
However, there are uncertainties in the way that both the Sharifs and the entities looking to topple them are overlooking. If the Sharifs are toppled by force, the aura of unconstitutionality attached with this ouster will give a pretext to radical elements to launch a countrywide insurgency. These elements and the PML-N have a soft corner for each other, going back decades. And then, with the Sharifs backed by the Saudis on one side and elements like Tahirul Qadri, the Sunni Ittehad Council and Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen on the other, the chances of this conflict turning into a sectarian one are very real. Look closely, and this plot has all the contours of the Syrian civil war.
On the other hand, if the Sharifs think they can afford to take things to the brink because of the countrywide insurgency threat, they are miscalculating big time. For, God forbid, when the first bullet is fired in any such conflict, the first victims will be the power/influence of the Sharifs and their industrial and commercial power base. I hope that the institutions entrusted with the responsibility for the security of this country are keeping a closer eye on this dimension of events.
So, what will happen? I think that despite this doomsday probability looming, we will be able to avoid catastrophe with the political and democratic maturity of Pakistan. For that, both the Sharifs and their opponents will have to engage and sacrifice. The principal of the sanctity of the vote provides all sides with a graceful face-saving exit. Pakistan deserves peace and stability, and it can only stem from a democratic system built on the principle that every vote is cast and counted freely and fairly.

The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik