Daily Times

“The moving finger writes; and, having writ,Moves on: nor all thy piety nor wit

Shall lure it back to cancel half a line,

Nor all thy tears wash out a word of it.” — Omar Khayyam.

Whatever may be the fate of Tahirul Qadri’s ambiguous revolution and Imran Khan’s azaadi (freedom) march, one thing is certain: this will go down in history as the political drama serial of Pakistan. Many not so objective analysts, who appear on television channels, forget the longest march of Baloch activists from Quetta to Islamabad only to appeal that their kidnapped kith and kin should be recovered. But that was the march on foot and not in bulletproof containers and sexy SUVs. They also forget the over one-month hunger strike and sit-in in front of Karachi Press Club by a young student against the kidnapping of his party president. Nevertheless, a positive and negative impact assessment of PAT’s and PTI’s dharnas (sit-ins) is needed. Most analysis are one sided. Let us consider the positive impact first.

One, Qadri’s cult followers have brought the PML-N government down from its high ground and broken its arrogance about getting away with the broad daylight murder of people by the police in Model Town, Lahore. This could have been avoided if their legal right to file a first information report (FIR) had been honoured and Shahbaz Sharif had resigned on moral grounds. Two, Qadri’s followers’ steadfastness, perseverance and discipline are remarkable and have brought partial victory to them. Three, as most of his followers are from the lower middle class it is a sign, that the disposed, if organised, can fight back for their rights even though they are led by a demagogue cleric. The MQM proved this point in urban Sindh long ago not withstanding their organisational tactics that has many critics. Four, he gives the message of moderate Islam in times of rising intolerance and extremism.

The negative aspects of the PAT’s dharna are: one, why has a Canada based cleric returned to launch a movement now? Two, why does he have dubious links with Musharraf’s supporters, including the agencies that have their own agenda of bringing the elected government to its knees. Three, selling dreams of an ambiguous revolution and false promises that the country’s economy cannot sustain. Four, it should have been kept a local protest against the Punjab government if the core issue is getting justice for the Model Town carnage victims.

Now let us look at the PTI dharna’s positive impact assessment. One, it will lead to further electoral reform. Two, the Nawaz government will have to rely more on democratic forces and shun majoritarian arrogance if it survives this onslaught; Three, the apolitical youth has been mobilised to demand the sanctity of the vote. Four, by default, he has brought all democratic forces onto one platform to ward off any extra constitutional set up as demanded by him.

The list of negative impacts is long and dangerous too. One, Imran may think that he is using the support of the establishment to bring down the government but, in the final analysis, the case is otherwise. Two, the use of undemocratic means to bring down the government will set wrong precedents if it succeeds. Three, it also sets the precedent that election rigging cases should be decided on the streets and not through the rules prescribed in law. Four, he has weakened the tenuous democracy of Pakistan and strengthened the military establishment. Five, his party has been isolated and will come out weak once the dharna is over. Six, the GHQ will be able to browbeat the prime minister to appoint their spymaster come the last week of September.

On the most ticklish issue of a treason case against General Pervez Musharraf, the only way to back out is by weakening the prosecution’s submissions. Already Zardari has suggested through his spokesperson that in-camera dialogue with the army should be held on the political impasse. Perhaps he wants the army to come clear whether they stand behind the government or support the PTI and PAT covertly.

In this well-scripted serial, in the end, all democratic forces will be losers and the only winner will obviously be the omnipotent script writer, whether the Nawaz government packs up or it survives all bruised and tamed when the drop scene is enacted after the long battle. If media reports are right, Nawaz has already surrendered like Zardari on any say on crucial foreign policy and national security issues. In a column in mid-July I had maintained that the Imran and Qadri duo is being encouraged to tame the prime minister and that stands validated now. I do not agree that this duo is just the puppet. They have a convergence of interest with the scriptwriters and, like all top actors, are likely to over-shoot their roles. Unwisely, they have taken the drama to such a high pitch that with coming down the climax will lessen their credibility.

The writer can be reached at ayazbabar@gmail.com