Afghan peace talks

The recent round of peace talks facilitated by Pakistan in Murree (near Islamabad) between the Taliban and the Afghan government gives new hope to bringing peace and stability to the war-ravaged Afghanistan. The talks are being held while Afghanistan is playing a blame game against Pakistan. The anti-Pakistani statements of President Ashraf Ghani, the attack on Afghan Parliament on June 22, the Afghan intelligence (NDS) report regarding the ISI involvement in that attack and the clash at the border derailed Pak-Afghan relations.
The Ghani administration had been waiting for Pakistan, especially GHQ, to play a role in getting the Afghan Taliban to come to the negotiation table. However, there were some complexities that delayed this process. In Afghanistan, there is a perception that the Taliban are in the full control of Pakistan but the ground reality is different; Pakistan only has a slight influence over the Taliban. The High Peace Council adviser, Ismail Qasimyar said: “Whether we like it or not, Pakistan has an effective role in bringing peace and stability in Afghanistan.” This is a positive trajectory for Pakistan and Ghani should acknowledge that rather than blaming Pakistan.
The foundation for this reconciliatory process has been laid because both sides have agreed to another round of talks in Pakistan, after Ramadan. There were several factors behind this compromise. Firstly, the US exit (although not completely) escalated the process, which was previously untenable in the presence of US and coalition forces. The withdrawal of the foreign forces from Afghanistan has remained one of the major demands of the Taliban. In the previous government of Hamid Karzai, the Taliban were demanding the withdrawal of the foreign forces from Afghanistan, when the Taliban set up an office in Qatar.
Secondly, the herculean efforts and realistic approach of President Ashraf Ghani has inclined the Taliban to come to the negotiation table. Indeed, a multiethnic, broad-based government is needed in Afghanistan. For this purpose, the Afghan government intends to appoint Taliban governors in three southern provinces: Helmand, Nimroz and Kandahar. All these steps show Kabul’s interest in the reconciliation process with the Taliban.
Thirdly, Pakistan’s interest in the Afghan peace process is a main factor. Reports say that the Qatar and Norway meetings were also arranged by Pakistan. But why is Pakistan so interested in these talks? Indeed, Pakistan’s internal security situation is such that it cannot bear the further presence of extremist groups in the region. Using the Taliban as a strategic asset for Pakistan is no more an option. Pakistan wants to get rid of this evil.
Fourthly, Pakistan’s practical steps against extremism have caused fear in the extremist factions of Afghanistan. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has considerably dismantled the Taliban from North Waziristan and shows Islamabad’s commitment to eliminating terrorism. Now the Taliban have realised that Afghanistan is their only sphere of influence, where the Afghan National Security forces are getting stronger to cope with anti-state elements.
Fifthly, the Islamic State (IS) expansion into Afghanistan is also alarming for the Taliban because it may affect their influence in the country, which is why the Taliban leadership has sent a letter to the IS leadership not to interfere in Afghanistan. In this complex situation, the IS expansion in Afghanistan may contribute to the Afghan peace talks and may also bring about some flexibility in the Taliban’s demands, which will be a positive sign for the Afghan government as well.
Sixthly, China’s efforts cannot be neglected. China has remained neutral towards Afghanistan throughout its history. China has its own interests in Afghanistan’s peace and stability because it wants to pursue its economic interests and counter the Xinjiang insurgency. Afghanistan’s insurgency has serious repercussions for the Xinjiang insurgency, which is considered a threat to China’s integrity. Additionally, peace in the region is a prerequisite for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which China will try to attain on any cost. Therefore, China will try its best to aid the success of the Afghan peace talks.
Despite these favourable conditions, there are some factors that could lead to a stalemate in thes talks. The demand of the withdrawal of the foreign forces, for one, has not yet been completely fulfilled. A source close to the Taliban leadership has said that the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan, beyond 2014, could cause an impasse. However, this impasse could be dealt with by giving extra concessions to the Taliban, which would depend upon their agreement.
Of course, before these peace talks begin, the Taliban will want some guarantees. Constitutional immunity from prosecution will be their primary demand. If both parties succeed in carrying out this process, the other groups (like the Hizb-e-Islami) will try to spoil it because they were left out of the peace talks. The Hizb-i-Islami chief, Gulbadin Hikmatyar recently announced support to IS in Afghanistan, which suggests that he does not want the on-going peace talks to succeed.
India, the influence of which has been considerably minimised by Ghani’s government, does not want this peace process to succeed. If an agreement is reached between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the Taliban — who were previously backed by Pakistan — may come into mainstream politics, which could affect Indian influence in Afghanistan in the future. The anti-Pakistani lobby in the Afghan Parliament and the warlords also do not want this reconciliatory process to succeed. The India influenced Karzai and Abdullah groups in the Afghan Parliament do not want Pakistan’s influence in the Afghan government because if the Taliban assumes political power, it will affect the interests of the anti-Pakistani groups. The warlords, too, have their own vested interests in an unstable and corrupt Afghanistan.
At present, instead of the US, Pakistan is involved in conducting peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Raheel Sharif, communicated the Taliban’s willingness to talk to the Afghan government during his visit to Kabul in February. Pakistan could play a positive role in the peace process. Today we see that both the Taliban and Afghan officials are at the negotiation table in Pakistan. The success of these peace talks depends upon the Afghan government but the Taliban leadership should also show some flexibility in their stance. Recently, the Taliban have changed their rigid demands regarding the education of women and other laws to some extent, but there is still a need to seek middle ground. Peace and stability is fundamental to the survival of Afghanistan as one unit and also for the government, which is still struggling with internal strife and failures to overcome security lapses.
Both sides should seek a peaceful compromise. Afghanistan needs stability after having gone through a long civil war. Durable peace can only be achieved once the grievances of the insurgents and stakeholders are fully addressed. Success in these negotiations will not only stabilise Afghanistan, but will also bring peace and stability to the entire region. Additionally, it would change the perception in Afghanistan that Pakistan does not want peace and stability in Afghanistan.

The writer is an independent researcher and freelance columnist based in Peshawar. He can be contacted at iqbalyousafzai786@gmail.com