Political analysts and politicians from the opposition are criticising the government for the omissions in the making of powerful inquiry commissions to investigate the Abbottabad and PNS Mehran events, and Saleem Shahzad’s murder. Sympathisers of the government claim that the government appointed the commissions as per the laid down law. But critics say that the omissions in appointing Supreme Court (SC) judges as head of the commission were deliberate delaying tactics. Under the written laws, perhaps the government is not obliged to ask the chief justice (CJ) of Pakistan but as per tradition, as Asma Jahangir explained, it is obligatory. The idea is to maintain the principle of separation of the executive and the judicature. In any case, even other members were also not sounded before announcing their names for the commissions, which shows the government’s casual attitude — if not a hidden agenda to protect the people who may be indicted by these commissions. The middle class intelligentsia finds it hard to fathom the political sagacity of dilly-dallying on the issue of setting up the commissions, which is according to the public’s demand. There is no doubt that the omissions in setting up these commissions by the government are to protect the military establishment and its premier intelligence agency. President Asif Zardari is not only the supreme commander but also the co-chairman of the PPP. In both positions it is in his political interest not to subject the military establishment to an inquiry, which the latter may find humiliating. There has been only one example of in-depth inquiry, which gave a scathing report rather posthumously, and that is the Hamoodur Rehman Commission’s report. The commission inquiry was against the generals who were not in power; that is why I call it ‘posthumous’. The report was kept under wraps for almost three decades until the concerned persons were gone and buried. So any hope that we can have of independent and powerful commissions that will bring out the facts is just a flicker. These commissions are supposed to find out how much we knew about Osama bin Laden living in a cantonment city, who helped him live there (I cannot say ‘hide’ here because he lived with three wives and a number of children in a huge house), whether we knew about the unilateral US operation and were helpless to stop them or were blinded by the comfort that our western borders were safe, how insider help was available to the PNS Mehran attackers and whether media allegations that the ISI was involved in Saleem Shahzad’s murder case are true or false. These are all sensitive questions and it is difficult for the sitting government to expose its security establishment to an independent scrutiny. The demand of the people is right that there should be no sacred cows. Mian Nawaz Sharif, a strong leader of Punjab, says it all the time. But, for President Zardari, this is a God-sent opportunity to win over the support of the military establishment by showing that he is reluctant to allow an independent inquiry. This creates a distance between his main political rival, the Sharifs, and the army and brings him closer to GHQ. The questions one hears every day are: what about public opinion? Does Zardari not care about it? And what about using this opportunity to cut the military establishment down to its constitutional role and regain the power to make foreign policy? Well, the answer to the first question is: when did Zardari care about the public opinion we talk about? He did not give two hoots when Benazir was in power twice and his corruption stories were all over the press. He disregarded public opinion when he came to power and played hardball on the restoration of the judiciary, and when he double-crossed Musharraf and became the president. In his 11-years incarceration, without any corruption charge against him proved by the governments hostile to him, I think he has become cynical about people’s politics where public opinion matters. Right now, Zardari knows that public opinion is more against the establishment that hates him and has tried every trick to defame and dethrone him. For him, so be it. He knows that the threat from the usual quarters — the establishment — has reduced significantly. He now wants to first focus to use this opportunity to get a majority in the Senate in early 2012 and then win the 2013 general elections. The establishment may not oppose him because he will keep protecting them. The chances of the PPP forming the next government have brightened, undermining all the criticism of the urban middle class and the media. His alliance with the PML-Q, if it remains intact, is likely to play an important role in this regard. In the last elections, where the PML-N won seats in Punjab, at the height of its popularity, the first and second runners-up were either from the PML-Q or PPP. Now the seat adjustment between the two can be straightforward so that the runner-up will get the ticket for the coalition. Add to this success cocktail the benefit of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) and Rs 500 billion inflows in the rural areas where PPP’s vote bank has been traditionally stronger. Coming down to the second question about why the PPP does not use this opportunity to regain real political power from the establishment, when its stock is down in the political market. This is not the first time that the PPP is willing to trade its soul to the military establishment. Mr Bhutto did it first when he sided with the military junta and did not agree to transfer power to Mujib. It was wrong to say that Mujib was representing the feelings of the Bengalis only. The then NWFP and Balochistan had voted for the National Awami Party, which had an almost similar agenda as Mujib’s Awami League on the autonomy issue. When Bhutto resurrected the defeated army he paid a heavy price with his life. Benazir and Sharif’s governments were ousted by the same military establishment. Zardari’s lesson from this recent history is that the village vote brings in the government and Rawalpindi disposes of it. So when starry-eyed democrats like us want to buck him up to take on the wounded establishment, he is no taker. To Mian Nawaz Sharif, reportedly, he says that he can correct the civil-military relations imbalance when he comes to power. He has learnt his hard realpolitik lesson in prison and from the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. His objective is to remain in power using all the tricks in his bag — the Indians call it raajneeti. The writer can be reached at ayazbabar@gmail.com