Let the games begin

The fact that the ruling PML-N regime has yet to remove all questions regarding its legitimacy, even after the passage of two years since the last general elections, must not sit well in party meetings. Shouting and heckling outside the gates of parliament, Imran Khan could not achieve any face saving last year but it seems that the stars are now aligning at just the right time for the PTI to finally get some reward for all its struggles.
As if the constitution of the judicial commission for probing the rigging allegations in the 2013 elections was not enough, the PML-N has been dealt a devastating blow through the removal of its railways minister, Saad Rafique, after the election tribunal uncovered some ‘irregularities’ in the voting records of the NA-125 constituency. This particular constituency was considered to be a PTI stronghold before the elections and the resounding victory achieved by the PML-N candidate never sat well with the PTI. For this reason, the verdict of the tribunal has had the de-seated candidate in fits of rage, while PTI supporters are jubilant to no end.
If the PML-N had its way, it would steer clear of the whole probing formalities but, alas, that possibility might become extinct when the tribunal declares its verdict in the NA-122 investigation. If the latest National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) report submitted to the tribunal is to be believed, over 50 percent of the votes cast could not be verified in retrospect. As things stand, the tribunal could very well serve another de-seating sentence to the current speaker of the National Assembly, Sardar Ayaz Sadiq. For those who love to keep score, this would mean two-nil to the PTI and no love for the incumbent government.
One thing to be noted is that the submitted evidence to the election tribunals has been carefully worded so as to cavort and dance around that undesirable word: rigging. Irregularities of a procedural and administrative nature are not entirely unexpected from any general elections but the sheer volume of such anomalies uncovered in the current probes begs the observer to ponder on the question of pre-planned, systematic rigging. The PTI seemed awfully sure of the shenanigans that allegedly went on in the four infamous constituencies from the very beginning, and even though the election tribunal’s decisions may have a come a little too late to cause significant damage to the government, Imran Khan stands vindicated in hindsight.
To add further injury, the discrete yet thorough judicial commission, comprising of three of the finest sitting judges of the Supreme Court (SC), could prove to be the wild card in the current, tense political atmosphere. From the very start, the role of the judicial commission has been to not just investigate the extent of the irregularities in electoral procedures but also to ascertain whether the mandate was indeed wrongfully stolen from the general public or not.
The final report of the commission will undoubtedly contain narratives of abnormalities and inconsistencies but the crucial aspect in that regard would be to see how many such irregularities the commission will forego and ignore. Also of importance is the consideration that any binding declarations towards the legitimacy of the current government could embroil the judiciary into unpredictable political imbroglios that could create precedents that might potentially come back to haunt the SC itself one day.
Seemingly aware of the multiple swords hanging over their heads, the two Sharif brothers are hard at work in damage control mode, inaugurating one mega project after another. An early election, if called for, would cause some displeasure to the ruling regime but if the pace of the recent project launches is any indication, the PML-N seems to be doing enough to mitigate such stated troubles and create a platform for future electoral campaigns. All of the nepotistic and authoritarian ways of rulers notwithstanding, there does seem to be improvement in some indicators regarding health, education and the economy, not just in Punjab but in other provinces as well. And lest you forget, $ 46 billion in Chinese investment is coming our way in the next couple of decades as well, courtesy the supposedly visionary leadership of the party in power.
On the other hand, the PTI now is comfortably the second biggest party in the country and the sole challenger to the incumbent government. Despite internal troubles that cease to go away even in the face of relentless efforts to do so, the election tribunal’s decisions in all challenged constituencies will give a morale boost to the battered PTI party ranks. The current narrative taking shape is that the 126 days of suffering in Islamabad have been rewarded and the PTI can rightly claim a moral victory in this instance. Additionally, if the judicial commission rules in favour of Imran Khan’s assertions as well, then the more theatrical among us could be forgiven for expecting a grand climax to this political saga.
Nonetheless, as a political outfit, the PTI still has a long way to go before it can pose a significant challenge to the supremacy of the PML-N in the country. While the discerning, the disenchanted and the nouveau-riche have all queued behind the charismatic ex-cricketer for one reason or another, the remaining poorer segments of the Pakistani electorate do not seem to be in any hurry to do so. The PTI tried to topple the government last year through street power but it did not and still does not have the requisite numbers. This is partly because, for better or for worse, the Pakistani political system works through intricate webs of patronage, which the party is yet to comprehend.
Yes, the educated throngs standing among the PTI ranks rightly care for trinkets like transparency and accountability but that can only garner a limited number of votes. If you really want to tap into the potential of the millions, then you need to provide employment and fuel the fires in the stoves that will then feed craving mouths. The manner in which such opportunities are created remains questionable — and the real bane of the Pakistani electorate as well — but it seems to work every time. In an arena with limited resources, there are rewards to be plodding along with the Caesar and the trend has caught on with the risk averse electorate in Pakistan.
These patronage networks were visible in the NA-246 by-elections in Karachi as well as in the local bodies’ elections in the cantonment areas. The real challenge for the PTI right now is to somehow make these networks work towards its advantage. But, for that to happen, its candidates will have to get their shoes dirty, knock on doors and provide a better alternative than what their rivals can offer to the voters. Only time will tell if the PTI can embrace such basic political realities but the next few weeks to come will surely be full of exciting political games, with both the government and the opposition vying for political space and sympathy of the voters.

The author is a freelance columnist with degrees in political science and international relations