As US and NATO forces prepare to depart Afghanistan at the end of this year, the alliance is trying to wrap up loose ends. Recently the US government finalised a bilateral security agreement that will keep just 9,800 US troops as advisors in the country and that too only until the end of 2016. The final draft of the agreement came after acrimonious debate about a continuing US presence in Afghanistan to help keep the country from descending into chaos and civil war after the NATO withdrawal. On Sunday it emerged that the US secretly brokered a deal with the Afghan Taliban for release of a US soldier in exchange for five high-ranking Taliban commanders being held in the maximum security US detention facility in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl was released Saturday and flown to a military base in Germany while the five Taliban commanders were flown to Qatar where they are supposed to remain for a year. Sergeant Bergdahl was a Taliban hostage for almost five years and his release was a long-standing objective for an administration under immense public pressure to return him home. Sergeant Bergdahl was variously reported as having deserted or defected after expressing his disillusionment and anger with the US mission in Afghanistan, reportedly once saying he was “ashamed to be an American” after his experiences in combat. His return throws a harsh light on the results of a mission that has led to bitter fighting, acrimony, and far fewer results than once hoped for in its 13-year long life. The Afghan government is furious about the release of men it says are responsible for war crimes and who, according to Afghan intelligence, have the capacity to bolster the Taliban forces when they return. Afghanistan also says that transferring its citizens to Qatar is illegal under international law. Qatar was the site of previous failed negotiation attempts between the US and the Taliban, with the latter being allowed to open an office there in 2013. The process eventually collapsed after the US decided not to go through with a prisoner swap involving these very same commanders and after criticism from Afghan President Hamid Karzai over the Taliban office flying an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan flag. This new deal has also been criticised within the US with several Republicans, notably Senator John McCain saying that releasing prisoners labelled the ‘worst of the worst’ was taking a gamble with Afghanistan’s future. The US routinely says it does not negotiate with terrorists and Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel was at pains to point out that prisoner of war (POW) exchanges were routine and did not constitute negotiations. The Taliban however, will be celebrating the upgrade in their status to POWs from ‘enemy combatants’, a designation that allowed the US government to keep prisoners in a legal and humanitarian black hole for years. Taliban commander Mullah Omar called the deal a “big victory” in a rare statement, highlighting the importance of the trade for the militant group. From the Taliban’s perspective it signals western unwillingness to engage in combat or risk soldiers anymore. The US formerly had two objectives in talking to the militants: negotiating a peaceful withdrawal for US troops, and a political compromise in order to prevent chaos once it left. The latter objective now appears to be in tatters. With no NATO forces to contend with in the near future, the Taliban have no incentive to negotiate and appear content to wait and let the process of disengagement run its course. This is also a blow to Pakistan’s policy of an ‘Afghan owned and led’ peace process, since the prospects of an intra-Afghan and intra-Pashtun civil war seem more likely now. If the Afghan Taliban attack in force once NATO leaves, as seems likely, the peace process will not begin again unless and until both sides feel they have reached a bloody stalemate. The democratically elected Afghan president who will take power as soon as the results of the run-off round are made public has a tough task ahead of him to stay in power after this year ends if the forecasts of a fresh civil war prove accurate. *