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‘Pakistan could become a failed state with nukes’

By Khalid Hasan

WASHINGTON: Normalisation of relations between India and Pakistan and Pakistan’s return to democracy is most likely the key to the withdrawal of the military from the political arena as well as to Pakistan’s long term stability, but if Pakistan does not transcend the dynamic created by an ideology defined by the mosque and an overly dominant military, it runs the risk of becoming a failed state with nuclear weapons, according to Pakistani academic and journalist Husain Haqqani.

Writing in a foreign affairs journal published by the McGill University, Montreal, Canada, Haqqani, who teaches at Boston University, writes that the US response to 9/11 left Pakistan with little choice but to turn more drastically toward the US. Confronted with an ultimatum to choose between being with the US or against it, Pakistan’s generals opted to revive their alliance with the US. But at every stage since then, Pakistan has proven to be a difficult US ally seeking specific rewards for specific actions.

He points out that Pakistan’s military has historically been willing to adjust its priorities to fit within the parameters of immediate US global concerns. The purpose has been to ensure the flow of military and economic aid from the United States, which Pakistan considers necessary for its struggle for survival and its competition with India. Pakistan’s relations with the US have been part of the Pakistani military’s policy tripod that emphasises Islam as a national unifier, rivalry with India as the principal objective of the state’s foreign policy, and an alliance with the United States as a means to defray the costs of Pakistan’s massive military expenditures.

Haqqani believes that America’s alliance with Pakistan, or rather with the Pakistani military, has had three significant consequences for Pakistan. First, because the US military sees Pakistan in the context of its Middle East strategy, Pakistan has become more oriented toward the Middle East even though it is geographically and historically a part of South Asia.

Second, the intermittent flow of US military and economic assistance has encouraged Pakistan’s military leaders to over-estimate their power potential. This, in turn, has contributed to their reluctance to accept normal relations with India even after learning through repeated misadventures that Pakistan can, at best, hold India to a draw in military conflict and cannot defeat it.

Third, the ability to secure military and economic aid by fitting into the current paradigm of American policy has made Pakistan a “rentier state,” using its strategic location. “These policies have, however, served to encourage extremist Islamism in Pakistan, which in the last few years has been the source of threats to both US interests and global security. It is also the greatest threat to Pakistan’s own long-term viability and national cohesion. The US can perhaps deal better with Pakistan in the long-term by using American influence to reshape the Pakistani military’s ideologically limited view of the national interest,” he adds.

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